Wrexham, the Welsh club with a rich history, are on the cusp of potentially returning to the second tier of English football for the first time since 1982. As League One nears its conclusion, promotion is within their grasp. However, their recent 2-2 draw against Cambridge United, a team battling relegation, means their destiny isn`t entirely in their own hands. This result came on a night when their rivals missed an opportunity to give Wrexham control of the promotion chase.
With six games remaining, Phil Parkinson`s Wrexham squad currently occupies second place in the league standings. Birmingham City leads the league and seems set for Championship promotion, holding an 11-point lead over Wrexham with two additional games played. The battle for the second automatic promotion spot is shaping up to be fiercely competitive.
Wycombe Wanderers, despite dominating Shrewsbury Town with 30 shots but failing to score, only managed a draw, meaning their promotion fate remains in their own hands. Charlton Athletic and Stockport County both capitalized on Tuesday night with victories, tightening the race as the season approaches its climax on May 3rd.
League One Promotion Standings
| Team | Pld. | W | D | L | GD | Pts. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 38 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 39 | 89 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 40 | 23 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 78 |
| 3 | Wycombe | 39 | 21 | 12 | 6 | 29 | 75 |
| 4 | Charlton | 40 | 21 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 72 |
| 5 | Stockport | 40 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 22 | 71 |
| 6 | Bolton | 39 | 19 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 63 |
The top two teams in the league will secure automatic promotion to the Championship. Teams finishing third through sixth will compete in playoffs, consisting of two-legged semi-finals and a final at Wembley Stadium on May 25th.
Wrexham`s Upcoming Fixtures
- April 5: Burton Albion (Home)
- April 12: Wigan (Away)
- April 18: Bristol Rovers (Home)
- April 21: Blackpool (Away)
- April 26: Charlton (Home)
- May 3: Lincoln (Away)
What Wrexham Needs for Promotion
Automatic promotion for Wrexham isn`t guaranteed. If Wycombe wins all of their remaining seven matches, Wrexham would need to match that winning streak just to tie on points. In such a scenario, goal difference would become the deciding factor, where Wycombe currently holds a five-goal advantage and has also scored more goals overall.
However, such a perfect run for Wycombe is unlikely. The promotion outcome may hinge on key head-to-head matches and results against other teams. On paper, Wrexham`s games against Burton Albion and Bristol Rovers should be straightforward, given the significant point difference. Yet, late in the season, facing teams fighting to avoid relegation can be particularly challenging.
Crucially, Wrexham and Wycombe both face Charlton Athletic in late April within a five-day span. Charlton`s performance in these two games could significantly impact the promotion race. Victories in both matches could propel Charlton into serious contention.
Rapid Rise Through English Football?
Should Wrexham successfully fend off Wycombe and other contenders, they would achieve an impressive three promotions in as many seasons. After a 15-year absence, they rejoined the English Football League in 2022-23 and immediately followed that with promotion from League Two as runners-up.
While several clubs in English football have achieved three consecutive promotions, including Truro City and Shaw Lane who even managed four, none have done so at such high levels of the pyramid. For example, FC United of Manchester also achieved three promotions after being founded in 2005, but they reached the Northern Premier League Premier Division, which is level seven in the English football pyramid.
Wrexham`s challenge is at a higher level, competing for a place in the second tier. The National League in 2022-23 was largely composed of professional teams, and Leagues Two and One are entirely professional. Wrexham`s ownership by Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney has provided the financial strength to compete at each level. This raises the important question of their Championship readiness.
Championship Survival for Wrexham?
Looking ahead, even beyond Championship survival and potentially to the Premier League, is a significant jump. While back-to-back promotions from League One to the Premier League have occurred, most recently by Ipswich Town last season, it`s typically achieved by established top clubs. Wrexham, despite gaining a global fanbase, would find the Championship to be a financially demanding league.
In League Two, Wrexham`s wage bill exceeded $14 million annually and has likely increased with the signings of players like Jay Rodriguez and Matty James. Even with rising costs, a promoted club like Wrexham might still spend significantly less than the wealthiest Championship teams. Wrexham director Humprey Ker has suggested their salary expenditure might need to quadruple to remain competitive after promotion.
Underlying performance metrics raise questions about Wrexham`s immediate Championship competitiveness. They have scored 56 goals from 48.1 expected goals (xG) and conceded 32 goals from 42.4 expected goals against (xG). While second in League One, their non-penalty xG difference ranks them ninth.
This data might suggest challenges for Wrexham in securing promotion and surviving in the Championship. However, Wrexham`s recent history since 2020 demonstrates a club capable of rising to challenges. If they do achieve League One promotion, expect significant investment to ensure they can establish themselves in the Championship.
