Islam Makhachev, the UFC lightweight champion, is waiting to find out who his next opponent will be. There are four fighters in the running for a title shot.
Arman Tsarukyan, Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje, and Ilia Topuria, who is currently the featherweight champion, have all said they want to fight for the title. However, the UFC hasn`t decided yet. While each fighter has a case, UFC veteran Matt Brown thinks Ilia Topuria is the best choice because of the excitement and importance a fight with him would bring.
“I’d pick Ilia,” Brown stated on the podcast The Fighter vs. The Writer. “Islam might not want this fight, and maybe he shouldn`t, but none of the other fighters have really stood out enough to clearly deserve the shot. That`s why there are four contenders.”
“No one has performed so well that it`s obvious they should be next. I think the UFC should give Ilia the opportunity. Let`s see if it works out for him. If he wins, Ilia could become an even bigger star.”
Makhachev`s hesitation about fighting Topuria is because he previously fought featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski. He received criticism for defeating a smaller fighter. Makhachev has suggested Topuria should gain experience in the lightweight division first before getting a title shot.
Brown understands Makhachev`s point about facing another featherweight moving up to lightweight. However, he believes the UFC sees a big money fight in Topuria, which is hard to ignore.
Brown also adds that the other contenders will still be around for title shots later. But if Topuria loses now, the hype for a potential fight with Makhachev would disappear.
“Those other guys aren’t going anywhere,” Brown said about Tsarukyan, Oliveira, and Gaethje. “They can still get title fights in the future. In the meantime, give Ilia the chance to become a massive star – maybe even the biggest in the sport. If he beats Islam after defeating Volkanovski and Holloway, he`d be in the conversation for greatest of all time.”
Topuria seems to have momentum, especially after Tsarukyan had to withdraw from a fight against Makhachev in January due to a back injury. UFC CEO Dana White then said Tsarukyan would need another win before getting a title shot again.
Oliveira recently had a strong win against Michael Chandler, but he has lost to both Tsarukyan and Makhachev in the past.
Gaethje called for a title shot after defeating Rafael Fiziev, but this win came after a knockout loss to Max Holloway at UFC 300 about a year prior.
Brown understands why the other fighters might be frustrated if Topuria gets a title shot before them. He suggests Oliveira and Gaethje should stay active, while Tsarukyan might wait for his opportunity or be a backup for the title fight.
“If I were the UFC, I’d say Arman doesn’t necessarily need to fight again right away,” Brown said. “Arman, you’re next in line. You fight the winner of Ilia and Islam. But if we put Ilia and Islam together, an Islam win doesn`t hurt him, but an Ilia win creates a huge star and champion.”
“Arman, just wait, and if someone gets injured, you can step in. I know Arman has been out, but his back was injured. He should heal and wait for his chance. He might have to wait longer than he wants, but that’s sometimes how it is.”
Beyond star power, Brown also believes Topuria poses a stylistic challenge that could trouble Makhachev more than Tsarukyan, Oliveira, or Gaethje.
Topuria may be moving up in weight, but he has significant knockout power, giving him a chance to defeat Makhachev. Brown isn’t sure the other contenders have the same potential to finish Makhachev.
“Arman’s style is wrestling. He’s probably not going to out-wrestle Islam,” Brown explained. “And I don’t think his striking is good enough to beat Islam standing up. Ilia will likely be out-wrestled, but he has the striking and knockout power. If Islam makes a mistake standing, Ilia has a chance to win. If Islam is too confident and stands too long, there’s a path to victory for Ilia, whereas Arman is almost like a lighter version of Islam.”
“We expect them to wrestle a lot, and it’s less likely Arman beats Islam with wrestling than Ilia beating Islam with striking. However, it’s also more likely Islam takes down Ilia and dominates him on the ground. It’s a tough call.”
Ultimately, Brown argues that Topuria`s star power combined with his knockout ability makes him the best choice for the next title fight.
“Ilia has an ‘X factor’ that Arman doesn’t,” Brown concluded. “That’s why I think he has a better shot.”
