Gilbert Burns is trying to maintain his relevance in the welterweight division.
It`s been four years since Burns unsuccessfully challenged for the UFC welterweight title. Despite recovering from that setback, the 38-year-old veteran is currently experiencing the first three-fight losing streak of his career. This difficult run could potentially continue this Saturday when Burns faces the undefeated Michael Morales in the main event of UFC Vegas 106.
This bout represents a significant opportunity for Morales. With an impressive 17-0 record, including a 5-0 start in the UFC, Morales looks like a future title contender. He has consistently beaten more experienced fighters, with recent victories over Neil Magny, Jake Matthews, and Max Griffin. A win against Burns is widely expected and would likely place him in the top 10 rankings. However, “Durinho” is a formidable opponent and shouldn`t be underestimated.
The main card also features Paul Craig in a critical fight against Rodolfo Bellato, a lightweight contest between Sodiq Yusuff and Mairon Santos, a potentially exciting clash involving Dustin Stoltzfus and Nursulton Ruziboev, and the show opener pitting featherweights Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa against each other, both holding recent wins.
Event: UFC Vegas 106
Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas
Date and Time: Saturday, May 17. The seven-fight preliminary card is scheduled to start at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the five-fight main card at 7 p.m. ET, both exclusively on ESPN+.
To be clear, Gilbert Burns absolutely has a path to victory in this fight. However, he needs a lot of factors to work in his favor to be the one to give Michael Morales his first professional defeat.
From a grappling perspective, Burns is extremely capable. If he can get the fight to the ground early, he has the potential to drain Morales` energy and minimize the size difference. Considering this is a five-round contest, banking early rounds is crucial for Burns. Morales` cardio over 25 minutes is untested, making a strategy focused on pushing him into later rounds a key element for Burns.
Burns also possesses significant punching power, so he isn`t without options if the fight becomes a stand-up war. However, engaging primarily in striking may not be his optimal strategy.
Morales is fundamentally sound with intelligent striking, showcasing excellent footwork and well-timed feints to set up his more dynamic techniques. His athleticism allows him to quickly recover from mistakes, including potential takedowns. Just when an opponent thinks they have Morales in trouble, he often explodes out of danger and reverses the situation. Once he gets going, he`s very difficult to stop.
Burns has demonstrated he can still compete with top fighters, but he has visibly slowed down. He is 13 years older than Morales, and perhaps more importantly, there`s a significant difference in their professional fight mileage and accumulated training hours. If this were the Gilbert Burns from two or three years ago, the matchup would be much closer to a coin flip. As it stands, Morales is a significant favorite for justifiable reasons.
Prediction: Morales by Decision.
Pick: Morales
It`s easy to find yourself rooting for Rodolfo Bellato. The heavy-handed Brazilian`s first two appearances in the UFC have been pure chaos, and at times he displays top-15 level talent. However, the concern about the amount of damage he takes in his fights makes it hard to fully back him without reservation. Perhaps he will approach the fight against Paul Craig with a more controlled strategy.
Paul Craig is fully aware of what`s at stake in this bout. A victory likely guarantees his continued presence in the octagon, while a loss could signal the end of his UFC run.
His performance against Bo Nickal, which was lackluster, certainly didn`t help his cause, especially considering Nickal`s own subsequent challenges. Craig is also known for being a slow starter throughout his career, and the last thing he needs to do is allow Bellato to dictate the pace early on.
Bellato is expected to come out aggressively, as is his custom, and it seems improbable that Craig will be able to pull off one of the late-fight comebacks he was once famous for. A powerful knockout victory for “Trator” (Bellato) is anticipated.
Pick: Bellato
Mairon Santos is definitely not taking the easy route after winning The Ultimate Fighter 32. Using the nickname “The Legend” (a clear reference to Ilia Topuria), he is making a quick turnaround after fighting in March and moving up a weight class to face Sodiq Yusuff, an opponent with significantly more experience in the UFC. While this might be a form of self-imposed challenge after a controversial decision win against Francis Marshall, he must be cautious to avoid hindering his promising potential.
Yusuff`s move up to the 155-pound lightweight division appears to be permanent, which increases concerns for Santos. This suggests Yusuff has properly prepared his body for this weight class. He has consistently shown strong striking skills, though he hasn`t secured many knockouts. Removing a difficult weight cut from the equation could potentially enhance his performance. With more energy, Yusuff might be able to unleash his strikes earlier and with more abandon.
While I might be underestimating Santos`s potential, Yusuff has troubled too many solid fighters for me to pick against him here. Therefore, I am not placing my confidence in the recent TUF champion in this particular fight.
Pick: Yusuff
This fight has the potential to be a chaotic encounter.
Dustin Stoltzfus is known for fights that often end before the final bell, and the same can be said for Nursulton Ruziboev. Although both have decision victories on their records, expect them to meet in the center and exchange heavy punches in this matchup.
This kind of fight plays to Stoltzfus`s strengths. He secured a surprising knockout victory over Marc-Andre Barriault in November when Barriault opted to engage in a striking battle against the cage. Stoltzfus quickly capitalized, earning a first-round knockout.
Ruziboev is expected to pressure forward, which will create opportunities for Stoltzfus to land counters and potentially steal the fight. However, Ruziboev`s accuracy and aggressive approach are likely to be decisive. He is predicted to hurt Stoltzfus with strikes on the feet before finishing the fight, possibly with ground-and-pound or a submission on the mat.
Pick: Ruziboev
This is excellent matchmaking, pairing two experienced featherweights who are currently on quiet winning streaks.
Julian Erosa is the more familiar name to many fans, having been competing consistently for 15 years and earning a reputation as a difficult opponent. Whether standing or grappling, the long and versatile Erosa can present challenges for any fighter.
Melquizel Costa has been actively trying to make up for lost time since making his UFC debut in 2023. He is currently riding a three-fight winning streak and could achieve his fourth win in just 11 months if he defeats Erosa.
Costa`s fights are rarely textbook examples of technique, but his resilience and ability to recover from difficult situations are among his best qualities. The same resilience isn`t always seen in Erosa, who can sometimes appear flat in the first round when not at his best. On the other hand, Erosa also has a number of first-round finishes on his record.
I lean towards Erosa in this contest, believing the fight will go past the initial five minutes and that his extensive high-level experience will guide him to victory. “Juicy J” is predicted to win by decision after a competitive three-round exchange.
Pick: Erosa
Preliminaries
Matheus Camilo defeated Gabe Green
Thiago Moises defeated Jared Gordon
Yadier del Valle defeated Connor Matthews
Tainara Lisboa defeated Luana Santos
Denise Gomes defeated Elise Reed
Hyun Sung Park defeated Carlos Hernandez
Tecia Pennington defeated Luana Pinheiro
