Brandon Moreno is determined to earn another shot at the UFC flyweight title. Having held the title twice, Moreno is a prime target, and Steve Erceg aims to defeat him in the UFC Mexico main event this Saturday. Moreno remains a top-five flyweight, despite recent setbacks.
He narrowly lost a split decision to Alexandre Pantoja, ending his second title reign in a very close fight. Another split decision loss followed against Brandon Royval, temporarily derailing his hopes for a Pantoja rematch. Even his victory over Amir Albazi was a high-risk, low-reward situation for Moreno.
Now, Moreno must again defend his position against a challenger, Erceg, who himself is seeking another title opportunity after a previous title challenge. Erceg is coming off a knockout loss to Kai Kara-France and might be even more motivated and desperate for a win than Moreno.
Flyweight fights are always exciting, but this Saturday`s event has extra pressure, with the enthusiastic Mexican crowd eager to support Moreno`s return to the top.
While looking at Moreno’s record in Mexico City being 0-2-1 may seem concerning, and past predictions may be inaccurate, focusing on the fight itself is key. Moreno’s speed and skill allow him to pressure opponents, and he will likely do the same with the home crowd behind him. Steve Erceg is unlikely to be intimidated and will probably use his boxing technique and footwork to avoid danger.
Erceg`s grappling could be important, and exchanges between him and Moreno promise exciting scrambles. Moreno`s proven ability to avoid being controlled on the ground gives him an edge. This fight could become a battle of endurance after the initial rounds.
Moreno is predicted to win this war of attrition, likely catching Erceg and finishing with ground and pound in the later rounds.
Pick: Moreno
Drew Dober, in his 25th UFC fight, has established himself as an exciting fighter who flirts with top 15 contention. The question is whether it`s time for a new generation of lightweight entertainers to take over.
Manuel Torres could be that next fan-favorite fighter. Torres uses his long reach effectively to attack from various angles with precision and is quick to capitalize on openings.
This fight is expected to offer knockout opportunities for both fighters. Dober, despite technical flaws, has knockout power, and if he connects with Torres, it could be decisive. It comes down to who lands first.
Torres, being younger and fresher, is predicted to defeat Dober. While Dober might threaten early, Torres is expected to find his timing and land a decisive strike, leading to a finish.
Pick: Torres
Kelvin Gastelum is committed to middleweight, which is positive news. Now, he faces Joe Pyfer, an intriguing finisher.
It`s hard to accurately assess Pyfer`s true level. His only UFC loss is to veteran Jack Hermansson, which is respectable. He`s shown he`s above the middle of the middleweight division and has another chance to prove he`s a future contender.
Pyfer has size and athleticism advantages. He might try to take Gastelum down and wear him out with wrestling, potentially leading to a submission as Gastelum tires. While Gastelum is a capable wrestler, his takedown defense has weaknesses.
However, Pyfer might choose to strike with Gastelum, which could be problematic. Gastelum has a strong chin even after 16 years of fighting, and Pyfer could tire himself out if he tries to overpower Gastelum. The altitude in Mexico City could further exacerbate any cardio issues for Pyfer.
Gastelum`s strategy should be to drag Pyfer into a deep, tiring fight and capitalize in the later rounds. If Pyfer isn`t prepared for this, he could struggle.
Gastelum is predicted to win by decision.
Pick: Gastelum
Prepare for the rise of 20-year-old Raul Rosas Jr., now a man and continuing his cage fighting career. He has won nine of his first 10 fights, including his last three. His next opponent is Vince Morales, a durable veteran.
This fight is expected to be a favorable matchup for the still-developing Rosas. Despite Morales` toughness, Rosas` speed, athleticism, and wrestling are likely to cause problems for Morales. While Morales has the skills to challenge Rosas, Rosas should be able to overcome and wear Morales down.
Rosas might secure a late finish, but a three-round decision victory is expected.
Pick: Rosas Jr.
Saimon Oliveira returns after over two years away from fighting and needs to ensure his cardio is ready, as David Martinez will push the pace.
Martinez, a Contender Series signee from 2024, is focused on agility and angles. He will invite Oliveira to chase him, using tight defense and counters before attacking. His pace will increase as the fight goes on, unless it ends quickly.
Oliveira needs to utilize a mix of martial arts to disrupt Martinez`s rhythm, but his wrestling effectiveness in this matchup is questionable. Martinez keeps his distance, making takedowns potentially difficult and energy-consuming for Oliveira.
Oliveira`s urgency to finish might be his downfall, as Martinez is expected to figure out his strategy early and win by knockout in the first round.
Pick: Martinez
Ronaldo Rodriguez is a fighter who can explode with offense at any moment, using unpredictable wrestling and striking bursts. However, he sometimes starts slowly, which has led to shaky starts in his UFC fights.
These defensive lapses could be costly against Kevin Borjas, a talented Contender Series fighter who has faced tough opponents. Borjas will happily dictate the fight if Rodriguez allows it, using his striking style in open space.
This is a difficult prediction. Rodriguez could potentially grapple to victory, but he has also absorbed many strikes relying on toughness, which isn`t sustainable. Borjas might be the one to expose this weakness.
Borjas is predicted to win by knockout.
Pick: Borjas
Preliminaries Results
Edgar Chairez def. CJ Vergara
Ateba Gautier def. Jose Daniel Medina
Christian Rodriguez def. Melquizael Costa
Loopy Godinez (11) def. Julia Polastri
Rafa Garcia def. Vinc Pichel
Gabriel Miranda def. Jamall Emmers
MarQuel Mederos def. Austin Hubbard
