Leon Edwards didn`t get a direct rematch for the championship and really needs a win to get back into title contention.
It`s a tough situation for Edwards, losing his title after a long unbeaten streak. He had to fight hard to get a title shot against Kamaru Usman, and the UFC seems hesitant to immediately put him back in the title picture against Belal Muhammad or others. For some reason, Edwards hasn`t been heavily promoted, and a loss at UFC London could put him in a difficult position.
Sean Brady is in a better position. A win over Edwards would be his third straight victory. After a loss to Muhammad, Brady bounced back with wins against former title challengers Kelvin Gastelum and Gilbert Burns. Defeating a former UFC champion like Edwards would put Brady near the top of the contenders, although Shavkat Rakhmonov is likely next in line for a title shot when healthy. Still, it`s a great spot for Brady to be.
The co-main event is similar, with former light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz facing rising contender Carlos Ulberg. Again, the veteran is fighting for his place, while the newcomer can make a strong case for a title shot with a win. An impressive win might even put Ulberg closer to a title shot than anyone else on the card.
Surprisingly, Leon Edwards is a slight underdog, according to betting odds. Why is there such disrespect?
Is Edwards, after nearly 30 fights in a 14-year career, considered past his prime? Did his title loss to Belal Muhammad badly damage his reputation? Or do people just think Sean Brady is that good?
Brady is a good pick on his own merits. He was a highly regarded prospect before joining the UFC and has mostly lived up to the hype, except for the Muhammad loss. In his recent wins, he`s shown his strong skills: great wrestling, good striking, and athleticism for the welterweight division.
The assumption is that after seeing Muhammad out-wrestle Edwards for five rounds, bettors think Brady will use a similar strategy. However, Edwards isn`t usually controlled on the ground as easily as Muhammad made it look. And it`s doubtful Brady can maintain Muhammad`s pace for 25 minutes.
Edwards should do enough damage on his feet and use some wrestling to win by decision.
Pick: Edwards
Jan Blachowicz is much more experienced than Carlos Ulberg. He`s fought tougher opponents, is more well-rounded, and still has knockout power. He is the better fighter.
However, he just turned 42.
That`s eight years older than Ulberg, and even in heavier weight classes, age is a factor. Blachowicz is also coming off shoulder surgery, which isn`t ideal.
And yet!
Despite these reasons, Blachowicz is still the pick. Ulberg is an exciting choice and a fresh face at 205 pounds would be good, but the skill gap is too big. Blachowicz recently had close fights with Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira. If that version of Blachowicz shows up, he should beat Ulberg.
Blachowicz by decision.
Pick: Blachowicz
This matchup brings to mind a classic Simpsons joke.
Kevin Holland is back at welterweight. That’s good!
He’s fighting a grappler. That’s bad.
His opponent, Gunnar Nelson, is 36 and has only fought twice in the last five years. That’s good!
Nelson won his last two fights and usually only loses to top welterweights. That’s bad.
Holland is fighting again quickly after his last bout. That might be bad? Perhaps not.
Even though Holland is moving back down to welterweight, it`s hard to believe he`s made the necessary improvements to become a top contender again. Nelson isn`t a world-beater and is getting older, but he`s still too strong on the ground for Holland. Nelson likely wins by submission in the second round.
Pick: Nelson
This fight was originally supposed to be an easy win for Molly McCann against Istela Nunes, who has a poor UFC record. But Nunes is out, and Alexia Thainara is stepping in, which presents a tougher challenge.
Thainara`s style isn`t fancy. Her striking is developing, but she likes to throw punches and kicks. Her takedowns are mostly just tackling opponents. But if it works, it works. And once she gets to the ground, she`s dangerous.
This is concerning for McCann. She`s good in striking fights, and Thainara might engage in that sometimes, but McCann has grappling weaknesses that Thainara will exploit. It`s unlikely McCann can keep this fight standing or get back to her feet if Thainara takes her down.
Thainara is a popular pick this week, and it`s possible she`s being overrated for her UFC debut, but she`s favored to beat McCann by submission.
Pick: Thainara
This lightweight fight could be a Fight of the Night contender between two exciting fighters in a deep division.
Chris Duncan tends to let the fight come to him. It`s worked well so far because he`s tough and has good timing, allowing him to draw opponents into his range. This matchup is perfect because Jordan Vucenic will likely pressure early and create action.
The question is if Duncan can find openings for his offense. Vucenic also strikes but has good submission skills, giving him options to keep Duncan guessing. Duncan will land some shots, but will it be enough against Vucenic`s varied attacks and volume? Probably not.
Expect a thrilling three-round fight that Vucenic wins by decision.
Pick: Vucenic
Speaking of Fight of the Night, the opener between Nathaniel Wood and Morgan Charriere is excellent.
Wood always gets into exciting fights, and this will be no different. It`s unlikely he can just use his grappling to control Charriere, so he`ll need to rely on his improving striking to keep it interesting. Wood has a slight speed advantage, while Charriere has more power.
Charriere has quietly become someone to watch in the featherweight division. After a good run in Cage Warriors, he`s proven to be an action fighter in the UFC, earning bonuses in his first three fights. He`s willing to take damage to land bigger shots against Wood.
This main card fight is also likely to go to a decision, with Charriere narrowly winning.
Pick: Charriere
Preliminaries
Jai Herbert def. Chris Padilla
Lone’er Kavanagh def. Felipe dos Santos
Mick Parkin def. Marcin Tybura (10)
Christian Leroy Duncan def. Andrey Pulyaev
Shauna Bannon def. Puja Tomar
Caolan Loughran def. Nathan Fletcher
Guram Kutateladze def. Kaue Fernandes
