Previously targeting the upper echelon of the welterweight rankings, Ian Machado Garry now faces the challenge of defending his spot against a rapidly rising fighter in the division.
Carlos Prates enters the bout on an impressive four-fight winning streak, with all those victories coming by knockout. He`s also earned five consecutive $50,000 performance bonuses. He aims to extend these streaks against Garry in the UFC Kansas City main event on Saturday. This marks a significant step up for Prates, following highlight-reel finishes against seasoned veterans like Neil Magny and Li Jingliang.
Current buzz in the division centers on champion Belal Muhammad`s defense against Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315 on May 10. There`s also speculation about UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev potentially moving to 170 pounds if Della Maddalena wins, which further muddles the contender picture. Other strong contenders include Sean Brady, Shavkat Rakhmonov (currently sidelined), and the winner of the recently announced Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley fight in Atlanta.
Regardless of how the rest of the division unfolds in the coming months, one certainty is that an impressive performance from either fighter in Saturday`s main event will put them squarely in title contention.
The rest of the main card features former light heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith`s anticipated final octagon appearance against Zhang Mingyang, Giga Chikadze looking to hold his ground in the featherweight rankings against David Onama, and Michel Pereira aiming to rebound from a loss when he faces Abus Magomedov in a middleweight clash, among other bouts.
Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates Prediction
While not the most glamorous aspect of fighting, distance control is paramount in Saturday`s main event.
Ian Machado Garry sees himself as an elite technical striker, a claim supported by his ability to effectively avoid damage. This skill is crucial against Carlos Prates, whose knockout power can only be described as “insane.” Prates possesses one of the most lethal left hands seen recently, capable of ending the fight with just one clean shot.
Therefore, the onus is on Garry to vary his approach and minimize the time spent in the pocket with Prates. Prates isn`t just dangerous from afar; he`s also adept at slipping inside and setting up his powerful strikes (that left hand again). While Garry is capable of winning a striking exchange, engaging solely on the feet is extremely risky.
Garry should capitalize on opportunities to use his grappling. This is a five-round fight, and Garry holds a clear cardio advantage, having gone the full 25 minutes twice in his career, while Prates has no experience fighting beyond the third round.
In a grinding fight where Garry avoids an early knockout, look for him to wear Prates down and secure a submission victory in the fourth round.
Pick: Garry
Anthony Smith vs. Zhang Mingyang Prediction
Anthony Smith, regardless of the outcome, we salute your career.
Though never a hyped blue-chip prospect, Smith carved out a remarkable career as a light heavyweight contender in the UFC, even fighting for the title and coming within a hair`s breadth of winning it via disqualification against Jon Jones. It`s worth noting he was 27 fights into his pro career when he first joined the UFC from Strikeforce, and already had 36 fights by the time he started his nearly decade-long second UFC run.
On a personal note, I`ll always have a soft spot for Smith; he was the subject of my very first interview as part of the MMA Fighting team. Back then, he was a middleweight barely known to casual fans. Witnessing his journey to becoming a headliner and a fixture on UFC broadcasts has been genuinely rewarding. We salute you, “Lionheart.”
Despite this admiration, I am picking against him in this bout.
Regardless of the outcome, Smith is ending his career on his own terms, which deserves respect. However, the logical choice is the younger, less experienced but presumably less worn-down Zhang Mingyang. A Smith victory wouldn`t be a complete shock, given Zhang`s recent opposition hasn`t been at this level, making this a potentially steep challenge for the 26-year-old. My prediction leans towards Zhang`s raw talent carrying him through, likely ending with a first-round knockout.
Pick: Zhang
Giga Chikadze vs. David Onama Prediction
The most common question surrounding this matchup is likely, “Is Giga Chikadze still ranked?”
Indeed, while it`s been some time since Chikadze performed at a level truly justifying a top-15 ranking (his knockout of Edson Barboza was in August 2021!), his only UFC defeats came against elite fighters like Arnold Allen and Calvin Kattar, which is certainly no disgrace. Few featherweights have definitively broken out from the dense middle of the pack to displace him, though one could argue otherwise.
Nevertheless, the reality of where he stands will be revealed tonight against the dangerous David Onama. While we`re still waiting for Onama to fully connect all the pieces, he`s clearly developing into a fast fighter with improving boxing and solid takedown defense. He`ll need to work hard to navigate Chikadze`s more refined striking game. Fortunately for Onama, volume isn`t an issue, and he presents significant challenges for Chikadze in his own right.
Despite anticipating a close contest, I am picking Onama to win by decision.
Pick: Onama
Michel Pereira vs. Abus Magomedov Prediction
We gained clearer insight into Michel Pereira`s limitations during his loss to Anthony Hernandez. Pereira has never been renowned for exceptional cardio, and Hernandez`s relentless pressure proved to be his kryptonite, suggesting Pereira may not be suited for lengthy, grinding fights.
This potential cardio deficiency could pose a problem against Abus Magomedov, who is quite comfortable fighting for the full distance. Magomedov does possess several defensive vulnerabilities that Pereira could exploit, meaning Abus will need to be exceptionally disciplined to avoid becoming a highlight-reel victim.
Frankly, Magomedov appears to be precisely the kind of opponent Michel Pereira is built to shine against. He`s not known for pushing a relentless pace, he`s hittable, and he`s a step slower in striking exchanges. I expect Pereira to deliver a classic performance here, securing the win and keeping his albeit slim title aspirations alive.
Pick: Pereira
Randy Brown vs. Nicolas Dalby Prediction
This matchup between two experienced welterweights screams “close decision.”
There`s very little that separates Randy Brown and Nicolas Dalby, both veterans who exemplify the modern, well-rounded MMA fighter. Striking? Check. Wrestling? Check. Grappling? Check. Cardio? Check. While this is excellent matchmaking from a competitive standpoint, don`t necessarily expect fireworks, as both fighters are so well-rounded they are likely to neutralize each other`s strengths at every turn, making it hard for either to clearly pull ahead on the scorecards.
Brown`s creativity and size advantage should be just enough to edge him ahead in this contest, although Dalby will certainly make it an uncomfortable night. Look for Brown to maintain a slight advantage across three rounds, landing just enough significant offense to sway a couple of judges and return to the win column.
Pick: Brown
Ikram Aliskerov vs. Andre Muniz Prediction
The first fight on the main card has clear potential for a finish, whether it`s Ikram Aliskerov`s knockout power or Andre Muniz`s formidable grappling game. However, it also has the potential to become a rather typical, slower-paced middleweight affair.
Imagine a scenario where Aliskerov is hesitant to engage aggressively due to the threat of a takedown, while Muniz is constantly feinting and attempting level changes out of fear of Aliskerov`s knockout blow. Can you picture it? Isn`t the prospect thrillingly… tactical?
Putting that potential “middleweight stinker” jinx aside, I`m picking Aliskerov to land significant strikes (hands, kicks, possibly knees) on Muniz. Aliskerov moves exceptionally well for a middleweight and generates power quickly. It`s also unavoidable to point out that Muniz hasn`t competed in over 500 days and recently turned 35, factors that will likely amplify any previous athletic limitations.
I predict Aliskerov will secure a first-round knockout.
Pick: Aliskerov
Preliminary Card Picks
- Matt Schnell def. Jimmy Flick
- Evan Elder def. Gauge Young
- Chris Gutierrez def. John Castaneda
- Da’Mon Blackshear def. Alatengheili
- Malcolm Wellmaker def. Cameron Saaiman
- Jaqueline Amorim def. Polyana Viana
- Timmy Cuamba def. Roberto Romero
- Joselyne Edwards def. Chelsea Chandler
