UFC Kansas City is set to feature a compelling welterweight main event between Ian Machado Garry and Carlos Prates. This fight carries significant implications for the 170-pound division. A win for Garry would put him back near the top contenders following his recent loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov, while a victory for Prates would extend his impressive winning streak to five and continue his rise as a standout `Fighting Nerds` representative.
Let`s break down this key matchup and look at some of the best betting opportunities on the rest of the card this weekend.
Main Event Pick: Ian Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry (-138)
Picking against Carlos Prates feels tough, as he`s an incredibly exciting fighter, but this matchup presents a serious challenge that could halt his recent momentum. While Garry has faced criticism, his talent is undeniable. His performance against Shavkat Rakhmonov, a widely regarded future champion, highlighted his well-rounded skills across all phases of the fight.
Prates, a dynamic and dangerous striker, can sometimes be overly aggressive. Garry is also a capable striker but holds potential advantages in grappling and perhaps cardio. These factors combined point towards a Garry victory on Saturday night.
Upset Pick: Andre Muniz
Andre Muniz (+395)
Andre Muniz faces Ikram Aliskerov, who is rightfully favored. However, the odds seem too wide. Despite some recent stumbles, Muniz remains a dangerous grappler. Aliskerov is a good wrestler, but perhaps not elite enough to completely neutralize Muniz`s threat if the fight goes to the ground. At these odds, Muniz offers significant value if he can secure a hold.
Value Pick: Chelsea Chandler
Chelsea Chandler (+245)
Chelsea Chandler takes on Joselyne Edwards in what looks like a mispriced fight on the prelims. Edwards is not a dominant fighter and has shown weaknesses in defensive wrestling. Chandler, while not without flaws, has the ability to land takedowns and make the fight physical and gritty. Chandler`s losses have come only against established contenders at bantamweight, suggesting her level is higher than these odds imply. Edwards might deserve to be the favorite, but not by this margin.
Finish Pick: Zhang Mingyang KO/TKO in Round 1
Zhang Mingyang KO/TKO in Round 1 (+120)
This pick is difficult from a fan perspective, as it likely signals Anthony Smith`s final walk to the cage, and it`s unlikely to go well for him. While not old in chronological years, Smith has significant mileage on his body and chin, which isn`t as durable as it once was. Zhang Mingyang is a powerful hitter known for finishing fights quickly; an astonishing fifteen of his past fights have ended in the first round. Expect Zhang to come out aggressively looking for another early stoppage.
Decision Pick: Randy Brown by Points
Randy Brown by Points (+110)
This pick comes down to a simple formula: Randy Brown is the more skilled overall fighter, and Nicolas Dalby is notoriously durable and rarely finished. Dalby has been on a good run, but he`s aging, and Brown is the more dynamic striker and athlete. This matchup strongly favors Brown winning via a clear decision on the judges` scorecards.
