Cory Sandhagen is determined to overcome his status as a consistent contender who falls just short of the title shot. His four previous UFC defeats have all come against opponents who immediately went on to challenge for the bantamweight championship after beating him. This pattern highlights Sandhagen`s position among the division`s elite, yet also underscores the need for a definitive victory to earn his own title opportunity.
Significant pressure rests on Sandhagen as he heads into the main event at UFC Des Moines against former two-time flyweight kingpin Deiveson Figueiredo. Figueiredo has found success since moving up to 135 pounds, winning his first three fights before a loss to Petr Yan. Despite Sandhagen likely holding a considerable size advantage, Figueiredo remains a formidable opponent, and a stumble here could severely impact Sandhagen`s title aspirations.
The main card also features several other compelling matchups: former ONE Championship standout Reinier de Ridder steps in to test highly-rated prospect Bo Nickal; welterweight veterans Santiago Ponzinibbio and Daniel Rodriguez are set to clash; Montel Jackson, known for his infrequent but impressive appearances, faces the undefeated Daniel Marcos; bantamweights Cameron Smotherman and Serhiy Sidey look to make a statement; and veteran Jeremy Stephens makes a surprise return to the UFC to take on Mason Jones.
Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Prediction
The storyline of Cory Sandhagen as a top contender vying for a title shot remains alive. I predict “The Sandman” will secure the win here to stay firmly in the mix for that elusive championship opportunity. He seems to have a very favorable stylistic matchup against Deiveson Figueiredo. Sandhagen is significantly larger, possesses the striking skills to handle Figueiredo on the feet, and his takedown defense should be sufficient to neutralize Figueiredo if the former flyweight champion attempts to grapple.
However, potential concerns for Sandhagen exist. Figueiredo`s power has transferred well to bantamweight, and he could potentially be the first to knock Sandhagen out, though this is unlikely. Figueiredo is also a more well-rounded fighter, showcased in his memorable four-fight series with Brandon Moreno that explored every facet of mixed martial arts. Sandhagen is favored for good reason, extending beyond his elite striking. He could even take an offensive approach with his wrestling, utilizing his size to control and frustrate Figueiredo on the ground. There`s a straightforward path to victory for Sandhagen if he adheres to the game plan.
Prediction: Sandhagen by Decision.
Bo Nickal vs. Reinier de Ridder Prediction
This matchup has the potential to be unpredictable. Initially, I was intrigued by this pairing, and after considering all angles, I`m even more so. Bo Nickal passed the test presented by Paul Craig, a significant step up in competition, but the performance wasn`t entirely convincing and raised questions about the pace of his development. Reinier de Ridder, a two-division champion from ONE, is Nickal`s eighth MMA opponent and one who could pose a substantial challenge.
Nickal is one of the most gifted athletes currently competing in the sport, giving him an advantage against most middleweights he faces, including de Ridder. De Ridder is a skilled grappler and an intelligent fighter, but Nickal, a three-time national wrestling champion, should theoretically be able to take him down at will. One wonders why Nickal doesn`t rely more on this incredible wrestling pedigree.
Engaging in a ground battle with the submission-minded de Ridder might not seem ideal, but if Nickal is to regain some momentum and confidence, showcasing his arguably world-class wrestling could be beneficial. While mixing in striking is fine, it would be good to see him prioritize his dominant wrestling in this fight. I`m prepared for various outcomes: a tactical, possibly slow middleweight bout; Nickal overwhelming de Ridder; or de Ridder outsmarting Nickal and securing a submission. Regardless of the outcome, it`s an interesting fight.
Prediction: Nickal.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Daniel Rodriguez Prediction
This booking makes sense given the fighters` positions. Both Santiago Ponzinibbio and Daniel Rodriguez are 38 years old, and matching them against each other respectfully acknowledges their careers rather than pitting them against the division`s younger, rising stars. Both men primarily prefer to strike, making this a well-suited stand-up battle. Their kickboxing styles are similar, which should result in a competitive and professional three-round contest. Following the exciting fight between Randy Brown and Nicolas Dalby last week, Ponzinibbio and Rodriguez could deliver a similarly thrilling fight, though perhaps without a sudden finish.
It`s difficult to say, but based on recent performances, Rodriguez seems to have shown slightly more signs of slowing down compared to Ponzinibbio, despite having significantly less overall fight experience. Neither fighter is known for an extremely high-paced style, but Ponzinibbio`s more diverse striking attack appears to have aged better.
Prediction: Ponzinibbio by Decision.
Montel Jackson vs. Daniel Marcos Prediction
One has to wonder how far Montel Jackson could progress with more consistent activity. “Quik” is currently on a five-fight winning streak, one of the longest in the bantamweight division, yet his inactivity (fighting only once in 2024, 2023, and 2022, with this being his 2025 debut) means this impressive run is often overlooked. He is undoubtedly a very talented fighter. Given the rapid pace of the bantamweight division, it wouldn`t be surprising if someone with less UFC experience, like Daniel Marcos, were to leapfrog him in the rankings.
Marcos is an excellent striker with significant power in his right hand, capable of ending the fight quickly if Jackson makes a mistake. Fortunately for Jackson, he holds advantages in size and speed, and has faced a higher level of competition. Marcos remains undefeated, but he has faced challenging moments in some recent fights, managing to escape with wins. He is unlikely to be as fortunate against Jackson, who I predict will find Marcos` chin and secure a finish in the first or second round.
Prediction: Jackson.
Cameron Smotherman vs. Serhiy Sidey Prediction
While I appreciate the bantamweight division, I have questioned the placement of Cameron Smotherman vs. Serhiy Sidey on the main card given their relative lack of name recognition. There were other bouts, such as former champion Miesha Tate vs. Yana Santos or ranked strawweights Marina Rodriguez vs. Gillian Robertson, or even a heavyweight slugfest like Thomas Petersen vs. Don’Tale Mayes, that seemed more fitting for the main broadcast.
Nonetheless, these rising prospects have the opportunity to silence doubters with a “Fight of the Night” performance, which is likely what the UFC is hoping for. Smotherman possesses good boxing skills, and while his overall game could be more developed, his fan-friendly striking style should keep him competitive at 135 pounds for years to come. Sidey also tends to use his grappling primarily for defense and is comfortable engaging on the feet.
Smotherman has shown inconsistency, but I see high potential in him, and I believe the best version of him can win the striking battle. I`m picking him to score a minor upset here.
Prediction: Smotherman.
Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones Prediction
Although Smotherman and Sidey could potentially steal the show, let`s be honest: Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones is a strong candidate for “Fight of the Night.” Stephens, a native of Des Moines, couldn`t pass up the chance to fight in his hometown despite his success in bare-knuckle boxing. The UFC granted him a prominent spot on the card and matched him with a willing opponent in Jones, who is also returning to the UFC after a successful 4-0 run in Cage Warriors.
If your lasting impression of Jones` initial UFC run is his thrilling debut against Mike Davis, you`ll be pleased to know his mindset hasn`t changed. While technically skilled, Jones ultimately wants to engage in a brawl, and he is guaranteed to meet Stephens in the center of the cage and trade heavy shots. While I`d enjoy seeing this go the distance for a back-and-forth battle, I actually favor Stephens to defy expectations and secure a vintage knockout victory. The hometown atmosphere in Iowa could reignite “Lil` Heathen” and propel him to a win that might mark his final UFC appearance.
Prediction: Stephens.
Preliminary Card Predictions
- Yana Santos def. Miesha Tate
- Azamat Bekoev def. Ryan Loder
- Marina Rodriguez def. Gillian Robertson
- Gaston Bolanos def. Quang Le
- Thomas Petersen def. Don’Tale Mayes
- Ivana Petrovic def. Juliana Miller
