Belal Muhammad`s initial welterweight title defense, planned for five months ago, was delayed. This postponement has unexpectedly created uncertainty across three weight classes. At UFC 310, Muhammad was scheduled to face the undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov, but a foot infection forced him out. Since then, the landscape has shifted dramatically. Several strong contenders have emerged at 170 pounds, including Muhammad`s opponent at UFC 315, Jack Della Maddalena. Additionally, speculation surrounds Muhammad`s friend, lightweight champion Islam Makhachev.
If Muhammad loses on Saturday, it could clear a path for Makhachev to move up to 170 pounds to challenge Della Maddalena. However, if this happens, what becomes of Ilia Topuria, who recently relinquished his featherweight belt hoping to compete for a title at 155 pounds? Conversely, if Muhammad wins, does this make a Makhachev vs. Topuria fight the obvious next step (especially with UFC 317 needing a main event), or does Topuria still need to prove himself against a top lightweight contender to earn a shot?
While UFC 315 might not be the year`s most anticipated event, MMA Fighting`s Alexander K. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew convened to explore the potential narratives that could arise from the UFC`s return to Montreal. The card also features a potential superfight setup for flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko against Zhang Weili.
Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena Fallout
Alexander K. Lee:
It`s well known that I favor chaos, and for that to happen, Jack Della Maddalena needs to secure the win. With all due respect to “JDM,” this opportunity wasn`t originally meant for him. He`s certainly qualified, but Shavkat Rakhmonov was clearly the top choice for some time. Had it not been for injuries keeping Rakhmonov sidelined, he would be the one with the chance to completely upend the division.
As things stand, our hopes for a significant shift rest on Della Maddalena`s shoulders. I want to see him trigger that first domino fall, allowing Islam Makhachev to move up, Ilia Topuria to potentially fight for a vacant lightweight title, and for Makhachev to eventually return to lightweight in the future to finally settle the rivalry with Topuria.
Mike Heck:
Both potential outcomes are intriguing, but I predict Muhammad will retain his title. While I`d be incredibly interested in seeing Islam Makhachev move up to welterweight to attempt to capture a second belt—and ideally vacate the lightweight title in the process—Muhammad is considerably underestimated. I`m curious to observe how his reign might unfold if he defeats JDM, then faces Rakhmonov, followed by Ian Machado Garry, and other possibilities depending on how the next few months play out.
Furthermore, there are still plenty of highly compelling lightweight title fights for Makhachev, and I still hold out hope that Arman Tsarukyan will get his opportunity at some point.
Jed Meshew:
The “best” possible outcome for the UFC has almost no chance of occurring, but since that`s the question, here it is: Belal Muhammad defeats Jack Della Maddalena, grabs the microphone, and immediately vacates his title to move up to 185 pounds. Muhammad is undeniably a great fighter, but we don`t need to pretend he`s the kind of champion the UFC is desperate to promote. His fights often aren`t the most thrilling, and despite his efforts to be captivating on the mic, it doesn`t quite resonate widely. Having Muhammad as champion is something the UFC can tolerate, but they won`t ever be genuinely excited about it.
So, if he were to willingly give up the belt, that would clearly be excellent news for the UFC. They could then book Islam Makhachev in a welterweight title fight, but instead of against JDM, it would be against Shavkat Rakhmonov. That`s arguably one of the best fights the promotion could possibly create. And while Dricus du Plessis says he`s fighting Khamzat Chimaev later this year, you never know. Muhammad has wanted to fight Chimaev for ages, so if the UFC wanted to put an interim title on that fight and schedule it for International Fight Week, I suspect people would embrace the idea.
Next Flyweight Title Challenger (Besides Zhang Weili)
Jed Meshew:
There`s a strong argument for Natalia Silva if she defeats Alexa Grasso, but I honestly don`t see that happening. Silva doesn`t have widespread name recognition yet, and there`s a quiet queue forming in the flyweight division. My prediction is that the next challenger for the flyweight title will be the winner of the Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber fight happening at the end of this month. For one, it`s a main event, which is usually a better indicator of being in title contention, and it involves two fighters with bigger names than Silva currently has. Blanchfield was hyped as the next major star and is still only 25. Barber generated her own hype as the next big thing and has finally developed into a genuinely good fighter. I believe the UFC will favor the name recognition and hype surrounding either of them over the hardcore fan favorite that Silva represents.
Alexander K. Lee:
Alexa Grasso tetralogy! Just kidding, of course. Similar to my take on JDM, I want to see movement and fresh matchups in these divisions. That means Natalia Silva delivering a spectacular performance against the former champion and solidifying her position as the number one contender. Silva has a genuine opportunity not only to be a new opponent for Shevchenko but she might also possess the skills to defeat her—or, at the very least, catch Shevchenko during a potential decline while Silva is reaching her prime. After that, I still see plenty of compelling options for Shevchenko—especially if Jasmine Jasudavicius pulls off a win against Jessica Andrade this Saturday—and I always prefer champions defending their belts against deserving contenders from their own division rather than pursuing (or accepting challenges from) fighters from other weight classes.
Mike Heck:
It should be “Natty Ice” if she beats Alexa Grasso, but regardless of the outcome, Zhang Weili will likely be next because the window for putting that superfight together is closing. The women`s divisions in the UFC are competitive, but they are desperately in need of a spark, and booking a fight between Shevchenko and Weili would certainly provide one. Silva would probably have to wait for her title shot, but if she defeats Grasso—which I believe she will—either fighting Shevchenko or Weili would be a significant opportunity for her.
Fighter Most Likely to Elevate Their Status at UFC 315
Mike Heck:
As I mentioned earlier, it`s “Natty Ice,” Natalia Silva. Silva is incredibly exciting to watch when she competes, and she has a captivating personality that could really endear her to the fanbase. If she defeats Grasso, it won`t be a boring fight, and she`ll undoubtedly cut a post-fight promo that will generate excitement around her. She`s an easy choice for me.
Jed Meshew:
I`m quite disappointed. My initial picks were obviously Benoit Saint Denis and Joel Alvarez, but it now appears that fight is off. Had Reiner de Ridder not just thoroughly dominated Bo Nickal, there would be great sadness in the Meshew household right now. But with Saint Denis and Alvarez no longer an option, I`ll default to another choice that is very much in line with my brand: the GOAT, Jose Aldo. Aldo is facing Aiemann Zahabi, which is honestly one of the worst matchmaking decisions in recent MMA history, but that doesn`t diminish its importance. Aldo is one of the top five greatest fighters of all time, and every time he steps into the octagon, he only reinforces how incredibly skilled he is. Can you name another MMA fighter who is still beating elite competition a decade past their prime and doing it in a more challenging weight class? I`ll wait.
Aldo is going to come out and once again prove his greatness. When he does, the UFC is going to shock the world. Dana White will appear at the post-fight press conference and acknowledge that they mishandled this final chapter of Aldo`s career with absurd and terrible matchups, and also admit they unfairly denied him a bantamweight title shot by giving it to a reportedly injured T.J. Dillashaw for inexplicable reasons. Therefore, in recognition of their repeated and significant mistakes, and the fact that Aldo gave current champion Merab Dvalishvili his most difficult fight during his current run, the promotion is pulling (possibly injured) Sean O`Malley from the main event of UFC 316 and replacing him with Jose Aldo. Justice will prevail!
Alexander K. Lee:
Jasmine Jasudavicius, this is your opportunity. The fighter from St. Catharines might be a late bloomer, but she`s certainly caught up quickly with a series of impressive performances, including a dominant win over recent bantamweight title challenger Mayra Bueno Silva. It`s uncertain how much more growth is possible for the 36-year-old Jasudavicius, but she`s making all the right strategic moves so far, including setting up a fight with former UFC champion and two-division threat Jessica Andrade.
A strong performance this Saturday would elevate Jasudavicius from a somewhat quirky contender to a genuine title challenger, a status that Canada has been missing for some time.
