UFC 315 has wrapped up, and the welterweight division now has a new champion.
On Saturday, Jack Della Maddalena secured the most significant victory of his career, delivering a masterful performance that resulted in a unanimous decision win over Belal Muhammad to claim the welterweight title.
Where does “JDM” go from here, and how enduring will his championship tenure be? What are the implications for the flyweight title picture following Valentina Shevchenko`s dominant performance against Manon Fiorot? And is Jose Aldo truly stepping away from the sport? Let`s explore the key questions from this week.
What are your thoughts on how Jack Della Maddalena`s title reign might unfold?
Ultimately, much depends on the outcome of his first title defense, which I feel is truly a toss-up.
Islam Makhachev is set to be JDM`s initial challenger, and I have no clear prediction for that fight. My initial inclination leans towards Makhachev, given he is widely considered the top pound-for-pound fighter globally, which carries significant weight. Additionally, I view Makhachev as a more complete fighter than Muhammad, who pushed JDM to a close decision, suggesting Makhachev theoretically poses a greater challenge. However, on the other hand, JDM is continuously evolving, demonstrated vastly improved takedown defense in his last fight, and possesses a skill set that could trouble Makhachev. Therefore, I wouldn`t confidently bet on Makhachev.
The challenge for JDM is that even if he overcomes Makhachev, the path doesn`t get easier. The welterweight division is stacked with formidable rising talents. Della Maddalena will face a gauntlet of contenders like Shavkat Rakhmonov, Ian Machado Garry, Sean Brady, and Joaquin Buckley. Furthermore, prospects like Michael Morales and Carlos Prates are on the horizon. The 170-pound division is currently a shark tank, and while JDM may navigate it successfully for a period, I wouldn`t predict anyone clearing the entire division.
Can you elaborate on the situation Jack Della Maddalena`s victory has created in both the 170 and 155-pound divisions? What is next for fighters like Shavkat, Brady, Belal, and Buckley while Islam competes for the title? Also, the 155-pound belt likely won`t be defended until 2026.
It`s not chaotic; the situation has actually become quite clear, though perhaps not ideal for everyone involved.
Islam Makhachev will challenge JDM for the welterweight championship later this year, potentially during a return to Australia in the fall or an event in Abu Dhabi. Because Makhachev vacated the lightweight title, Charles Oliveira and Ilia Topuria are scheduled to fight for that belt at UFC 317. I anticipate Arman Tsarukyan will likely face Justin Gaethje soon for a shot at the winner of that lightweight clash.
Regarding the welterweight contenders, Garry and Brady are likely candidates for a matchup now, and the winner of Buckley versus Kamaru Usman is expected to face Belal Muhammad next. The only uncertain factor is Shavkat Rakhmonov, but my guess is he will be present at the Islam vs. JDM fight and face the winner early next year.
Unless, of course, the UFC decides to pursue a more disruptive path. If Topuria defeats Oliveira and Makhachev defeats Della Maddalena, I`m certain the demand for a potential Makhachev vs. Topuria super fight would intensify dramatically. And if the UFC secures a new major broadcast deal, what better way to make a splash than a Makhachev vs. Topuria showdown for the welterweight title sometime next year? I`m not predicting this will happen, but it`s a possibility that has emerged. While such a scenario would be profoundly unfair to many contenders, it seems likely that most fans would prioritize the spectacle.
What`s next for Alexa Grasso? It seems her championship win was just a fluke. Also, Mayra Bueno Silva has a real chance against Shevchenko. Is she the future of the 125-pound division?
Unfortunately, Alexa Grasso appeared to be one of the biggest setbacks from Saturday night. She now finds herself in a difficult career position, and it seems her championship achievement might be remembered as an anomaly. It`s a brutal turn of events for Grasso.
To be clear, Grasso`s victory over Shevchenko was not a fluke, but it`s now evident it wasn`t the most probable outcome. If they fought ten times, Shevchenko would likely win more than half. However, Grasso was prepared on the critical night and found a way to win, which is commendable.
This situation also reinforces my frequent point that consistently defending a title is arguably the most challenging feat in MMA. Each time a champion competes, they face an opponent who has dedicated their life to that specific fight. A single error or misstep can result in losing everything.
As for Grasso`s future, her options are limited. She likely cannot return to 115 pounds and would be significantly undersized at 135 pounds, leaving her primarily in the flyweight division. Now, with a wave of new contenders emerging, she may unfortunately serve as a stepping stone for future title hopefuls.
Regarding Mayra Bueno Silva, yes, she is likely a major part of the flyweight division`s future. She looked excellent on Saturday, and while I won`t guarantee she`d beat Shevchenko if they fought next, she certainly has the potential to do so. I believe Silva and Erin Blanchfield are destined to have multiple title fights in the flyweight division in the coming years.
For the immediate future, however, it appears quite clear that Shevchenko will face Zhang Weili next. It`s a matchup between two of the sport`s top female fighters of all time, and it`s a fight that must happen now.
Do you believe Jose Aldo`s retirement is permanent?
I do not.
After losing a questionable decision to Aiemann Zahabi on Saturday, Jose Aldo commented that it was likely his final time in the octagon. The UFC Hall of Famer and featherweight icon later stated it “may have been my last time inside the octagon.” To me, that phrasing is telling. If he were fully committed to retiring, he wouldn`t use the word “may.”
This might be a bit of amateur psychology, but I suspect Aldo was primarily frustrated this week. It`s a point I`ve raised before, but the UFC`s management of his recent fights has been suboptimal. While booking him against Jonathan Martinez in Rio made some sense, scheduling fights against Mario Bautista and Zahabi seemed pointless. These opponents aren`t major names, which undoubtedly makes it harder to find motivation. His honest admission that his weight cut failed partly due to mental struggles suggests a fighter finding it difficult to fully commit to fighting relative unknowns. Why would he? These aren`t legendary matchups or legacy-defining fights; they are simply opponents. It`s hard to believe he wouldn`t be more focused if the fight were a high-profile, legacy-building encounter. To add to his frustration, his last two losses were controversial decisions.
I believe after some time for reflection, Aldo will realize he isn`t necessarily done fighting; he`s just done fighting meaningless bouts. But if the UFC approaches Jose in a few months and proposes, “We`re going to Rio this fall, Jose, you vs. Patricio Pitbull, are you interested?”, I think Aldo would reconsider his stance.
At least, I hope that`s the case.
