Belal Muhammad’s initial title defense is poised to kick off a series of key events in the UFC’s future planning. While acknowledging Muhammad’s significant achievement, it’s understandable that fan focus extends beyond the welterweight champion’s UFC 315 headliner against Jack Della Maddalena, given the potential implications that follow.
Major potential matchups loom large, including a possible bout between Muhammad and Islam Makhachev, and an intriguing clash between Della Maddalena and Ilia Topuria should he pull off an upset. These high-profile possibilities naturally cast a shadow over Della Maddalena’s immediate challenge. Della Maddalena, despite being a worthy contender, isn`t widely considered the true number one contender at 170 pounds; that distinction belongs to the undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov. Unfortunately, injuries have twice prevented the highly anticipated showdown between Rakhmonov and Muhammad.
This scenario sets the stage for a compelling contenders` line should Muhammad retain, a superfight opportunity for Della Maddalena if he achieves the upset, and potentially a significant fight for Topuria after he vacated his featherweight belt earlier this year to pursue a second undisputed title.
Elsewhere on the main card, flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko finds herself in the unusual position of being the underdog as she aims to hand challenger Manon Fiorot her first UFC loss. Veteran Jose Aldo continues what has been described as a bizarre retirement tour, facing the surging Aiemann Zahabi. A pivotal flyweight contender bout features Alexa Grasso against Natalia Silva, and Benoit Saint Denis looks to return to the win column against short-notice replacement Kyle Prepolec.
Prediction: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
Jack Della Maddalena is an exciting challenger with good recent form and a clear threat with his striking. However, the critical question is how he can possibly keep this fight standing, which is where he needs it to be to win.
Unless Belal Muhammad deviates significantly from his established strategy, the likely scenario is clear: Muhammad will use minimal striking to bridge the distance, then seamlessly transition to wrestling, focusing on single or double leg takedowns, securing the clinch, pressuring against the cage, and employing body locks – doing everything necessary to take the fight to the ground. As hard as Della Maddalena is likely to fight to remain upright, a takedown feels inevitable.
It might be a predictable forecast, but Della Maddalena hasn’t demonstrated consistent, high-level takedown defense, even in fights he’s won. If he struggled to stay on his feet against Bassil Hafez, it`s difficult to envision him preventing Muhammad from controlling him on the ground for the full 25 minutes. While a five-round format theoretically increases Della Maddalena’s chances of landing a knockout blow late, he has never competed beyond three rounds, making his gas tank in championship rounds a complete unknown.
The prediction is for Muhammad to retain his title, which should keep him in line for a future high-profile matchup, potentially against Makhachev.
Pick: Muhammad
Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot
Money has been steadily coming in on Valentina Shevchenko throughout the week, and this makes sense. It was puzzling why she was initially listed as the underdog, considering her status as one of the greatest female competitors in MMA history.
While she is getting older, and time is undefeated in combat sports, Shevchenko’s success has never been solely dependent on raw athleticism. Her dominance stems from an exceptional combination of all-around skill, tactical intelligence, and extensive experience – attributes that hold up better with age. Her strategic approach, evidenced in key recent fights, demonstrates the mind of a highly intelligent fighter capable of executing game plans effectively.
Manon Fiorot presents significant challenges. She has a size advantage over the champion, meaning Shevchenko won`t be able to simply muscle her around. If Shevchenko attempts one of her signature throws, she must be precise, or Fiorot could end up in top position ready to inflict damage. Fiorot will also be fearless on the feet, despite Shevchenko`s decorated striking background. The French fighter isn`t overly flashy, but she is highly effective, consistently pushing forward with combinations and possessing a powerful left hand. It`s conceivable Fiorot could land a fight-altering shot early on.
However, the bet here is against that scenario, predicting another masterful performance from Shevchenko, solidifying her legacy.
Pick: Shevchenko
Prediction: Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi
Firstly, credit to Jose Aldo for making weight, albeit after the bout was technically adjusted to featherweight. While Aldo’s history with difficult weight cuts is well-known, it’s risky to pick against the legendary fighter based solely on how he appeared on the scale.
Expect a rehydrated Aldo to perform close to his best possible form at 38 years old. Few fighters globally are willing or technically proficient enough to stand and trade with Aldo, with only the absolute elite having successfully out-struck him. Aiemann Zahabi is a sharp and capable fighter, but does he possess the technical arsenal to overcome Aldo’s unique blend of aggression and adaptability? It’s a difficult task to match him shot for shot.
Despite questions about the matchmaking positioning Aldo against active contenders rather than in potential “legends” bouts, he remains a formidable challenge for almost anyone in the division.
The prediction is for Aldo to secure a victory, likely by decision.
Pick: Aldo
Prediction: Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva
This fight is arguably the most difficult prediction on the main card. Alexa Grasso’s performance in her trilogy bout with Shevchenko was notably poor, leading to speculation about whether Shevchenko was simply the superior fighter all along, if Grasso’s takedown defense is a critical vulnerability, or if it was simply an off night at the worst time. Regardless, it’s understandable that the odds favor Silva as she appears to be on a trajectory towards her own title opportunity.
Natalia “Natty Ice” Silva is a dangerous striker, and while sharp boxing has been a hallmark of Grasso’s career, matching Silva’s volume and accuracy on the feet will be challenging. Grasso may attempt offensive wrestling to break Silva’s rhythm, but it’s questionable whether this will be a path to victory rather than merely delaying the outcome. Silva has consistently risen to the occasion with each step up in competition. This is undoubtedly her biggest test yet, but she is expected to overcome it, earning her place in line for a title shot.
Pick: Silva
Prediction: Benoit Saint Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec
While predicting an upset for Kyle Prepolec is a long shot, he is expected to make Benoit Saint Denis work hard for the win. Prepolec stepped in on short notice and has shown confidence in his ability to compete.
Saint Denis is at a critical juncture in his career. After a series of impressive finishes positioned him as a potential dark horse lightweight contender, recent losses have raised questions about his development. This fight, even against a short-notice opponent, provides important insight into his current state. Despite the clear talent gap, Prepolec is known for his toughness and is exceptionally difficult to finish. He might start aggressively, hoping to catch Saint Denis off guard. However, the overall talent level favors Saint Denis significantly.
The prediction is for Saint Denis to secure the victory, though Prepolec is expected to demonstrate resilience and contribute to a competitive bout, possibly earning “Fight of the Night” honors despite the loss.
Pick: Saint Denis
Predictions for the preliminary portion of the card were also included in the original analysis.
