Prepare for UFC 315, where Belal Muhammad is set for his initial defense of the welterweight championship. This Saturday in Montreal, Quebec, Muhammad will put his 170-pound belt on the line against Jack Della Maddalena in the main event. This fight carries significant weight, potentially impacting not only the welterweight division but also the lightweight title picture. Will Muhammad successfully defend his reign, or can “JDM” achieve an upset that could set up a future clash with lightweight king Islam Makhachev? Let`s delve into the critical strategies for both fighters heading into Saturday night.
Belal Muhammad`s Path to Victory
Muhammad arrives on Saturday with an impressive 11-fight unbeaten streak, a run that has propelled him to the top of the welwelweight rankings and near the pound-for-pound elite. His dominant decision victory over Leon Edwards in their UFC 304 rematch clearly demonstrated the significant improvements Muhammad has made during his journey to the title. For his first defense, he faces Jack Della Maddalena, a matchup that stylistically appears quite favorable for the champion.
Despite discussions about Muhammad potentially showcasing his striking prowess, it`s highly improbable that this will be his main focus on Saturday. Muhammad possesses decent striking skills, including effective kicks, a long jab, and a deceptive lead uppercut, but his stand-up game primarily serves to set up his wrestling entries. Against Edwards, Muhammad effectively used his hands and forward pressure to corner “Rocky,” creating opportunities to shoot for takedowns. Expect a similar approach this weekend.
Della Maddalena is a dynamic and dangerous opponent, but he has a clear vulnerability: wrestling. Gilbert Burns notably succeeded in taking Della Maddalena down repeatedly. While “JDM” consistently managed to return to his feet, these takedowns put him in a difficult position, forcing him to stage a comeback in the third round to avoid his first UFC defeat.
Muhammad should be capable of replicating much of this wrestling success, provided he can back Della Maddalena up and avoid absorbing significant strikes. Unlike Burns, who has good but not exceptional cardio, Muhammad`s pace never truly slows down. This suggests that if he can establish his wrestling game early, it could build into a snowball effect, overwhelming the challenger throughout the fight.
Jack Della Maddalena`s Path to Victory
If Jack Della Maddalena aims to upset Belal Muhammad and capture the title on Saturday, his strategy must revolve entirely around keeping the fight standing. “JDM” is a formidable and intelligent boxer, and simply put, if the fight remains on the feet, Della Maddalena has an excellent chance of leaving Montreal with the belt.
But how can “JDM” ensure the fight stays upright? Ideally, Della Maddalena has dedicated his year-long layoff to enhancing his defensive wrestling skills, but that`s just one aspect. There are several tactics Della Maddalena can employ to frustrate Muhammad`s grappling efforts, starting with managing space. Against Edwards, most of Muhammad`s successful takedowns occurred when Edwards was pressed against the fence. Muhammad is not an explosive athlete and finds it harder to secure takedowns in open space, needing to corner opponents to execute his game plan. Della Maddalena must make avoiding the cage a top priority on Saturday.
Furthermore, it would be highly beneficial for Della Maddalena to be the one initiating pressure, moving Muhammad backward. “Remember the Name” isn`t renowned for brilliant defensive footwork and often resorts to retreating and resetting when facing forward pressure. Attempting takedowns while moving backward is challenging, and if Della Maddalena can consistently advance behind his jab and incorporate focused body work, he can put Muhammad at a disadvantage.
Lastly, Della Maddalena needs to make smart tactical decisions throughout the fight. Muhammad will almost certainly secure some takedowns; this is acceptable as long as Della Maddalena doesn`t become comfortable fighting off his back. Della Maddalena possesses a dynamic and tricky scrambling ability. Whenever he is taken down, “JDM” must immediately utilize this skill to return to his feet swiftly. Engaging in risky maneuvers like jumping guillotine attempts, as seen against Bassil Hafez, would essentially be conceding the fight.
Prediction
While a year-long layoff and multiple injuries are definite concerns for Della Maddalena, my confidence in his chances seems to increase as the fight approaches. Muhammad delivered a masterful performance against Leon Edwards, but he is fundamentally a decision fighter. This always presents a risk when facing a dangerous finisher like Della Maddalena. In essence, Muhammad needs to win the entire 25 minutes on Saturday, while Della Maddalena only needs a few critical seconds. This is a significant challenge, particularly when your opponent has extensive footage to study and build a game plan around your established tendencies and abilities. I suspect there`s a reason Islam Makhachev might be waiting for his friend to defend the belt: he recognizes that Della Maddalena poses a serious threat to win. My prediction is that “Jackie Three Names” successfully stifles Muhammad`s pressure and takedown attempts, allowing his superior striking to clinch the victory.
Prediction: Jack Della Maddalena by KO (punch) — 2:28, Round 3
