Oakmont`s notorious difficulty is highlighted by the low number of players finishing under par in previous U.S. Opens held there. Across the nine past Opens at this venue, only 23 players managed to finish below par for the tournament. Notably, three former champions concluded their rounds over par, and the lowest winning score recorded at Oakmont was 5 under.
With towering ankle-high rough and exceptionally fast greens, golf`s most challenging test becomes even more formidable on a course characterized by its lack of water hazards and sparse tree presence.
“It`s going to be a challenge,” commented LIV Golf League captain Jon Rahm, the 2021 U.S. Open winner. “A lot of unfortunate things are going to happen. It`s hard fairways to hit, bad lies, difficult bunkers, difficult greens. It`s going to be a nice test, a difficult test. And I think one of the truest representations of what a U.S. Open is all about.”
As the tournament approaches, several key narratives emerge: Will Scottie Scheffler`s remarkable period of dominance continue as he seeks to capture the third leg of the career Grand Slam? Can Masters champion Rory McIlroy resolve the driving issues that have affected his recent performances? And which potential dark horse contenders might surprise the field and lift the U.S. Open trophy on Sunday?
Can World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler Maintain His Dominance?
Mark Schlabach believes Scottie Scheffler is almost certain to be in contention this week, barring significant inaccuracy off the tee – a problem he seemed to overcome in his recent victory at the Memorial. Scheffler appears to have corrected the driving issues that troubled him during the final round of last month`s PGA Championship. His performance has been exceptional, winning three of his last four starts, including his third major title. Over his past five events, he has gained an average of 14 strokes on the field, a level of performance that is incredibly difficult for competitors to match. Scheffler leads the tour in most ball-striking and driving metrics and ranks among the top 25 putters, making him a formidable challenge for anyone in the field.
Paolo Uggetti concurs that Scheffler is undeniably the player everyone is trying to catch, and rightly so, as he currently seems unbeatable. While Oakmont`s demanding setup will require his absolute best game – noting he might have won the PGA with less than his peak performance – Scheffler`s form has been trending back towards his elite 2024 standard. Uggetti shares the concern that a struggling driver could derail Scheffler`s chances, but is also particularly interested in how his putting will fare on Oakmont`s notorious greens. Although Scheffler has significantly improved this area of his game, ranking among the top 20 putters globally, early frustrations with putts not dropping could potentially affect the rest of his play. Referencing his difficulties with unpredictable native areas at Pinehurst last year, Uggetti suggests that Oakmont`s greens could be the potential weak point for Scheffler this week.
Rory McIlroy`s Recent Struggles: Can He Turn It Around at Oakmont?
Mark Schlabach notes that Rory McIlroy has visibly struggled with his comfort level off the tee since the driver he used to win the Masters was found to be nonconforming during testing at the PGA Championship. This issue limited his impact at Quail Hollow, a venue where he had previously won four times, as he failed to consistently find the fairway. McIlroy then used a different version of a new TaylorMade driver at the RBC Canadian Open, resulting in even worse statistics. Despite trying a shorter shaft (44 inches) for better control, he hit only 42% of fairways, including a round of 78 where he found just four – a scenario that would be disastrous at Oakmont. This week, he is using yet another TaylorMade driver and feels more optimistic.
However, Schlabach expresses greater concern about McIlroy`s mindset and motivation after completing the career Grand Slam at the Masters. McIlroy has been candid about finding it more difficult to commit to lengthy practice sessions after achieving such a monumental goal, stating that no future PGA Tour victory will carry the same significance as his Masters win.
“You dream about the final putt going in at the Masters, but you don`t think about what comes next,” McIlroy commented. “I think I`ve always been a player that struggles to play after a big event, after I win whatever tournament. I always struggle to show up with motivation the next week because you`ve just accomplished something and you want to enjoy it and you want to sort of relish the fact that you`ve achieved a goal… I think chasing a certain goal for the better part of a decade and a half, I think I`m allowed a little bit of time to relax a little bit. But here at Oakmont, I certainly can`t relax this week.”
Schlabach concludes that it will likely take a few more weeks before McIlroy returns to his top form.
Paolo Uggetti reflects on the unpredictable nature of golf, observing how swiftly McIlroy went from the high of completing the Grand Slam with three wins this season to facing difficulties. He suggests that even small factors like a swing feel, a putting stroke, or a new driver can disrupt a player`s rhythm, and McIlroy appears to be experiencing this now. During a practice round, McIlroy reportedly used a driver model with similar specifications to the one from his Masters win, hoping it might reignite his game. However, while he managed to win at Augusta National despite missing fairways, Oakmont`s layout is less forgiving of such inaccuracy.
Defending Champion Bryson DeChambeau: What to Expect This Week?
Mark Schlabach anticipates Bryson DeChambeau being a strong contender again. He emphasizes that DeChambeau will need to significantly improve his accuracy off the tee compared to last year, when he hit only 57% of fairways at Pinehurst No. 2. This level of inaccuracy won`t be sustainable at Oakmont. At Pinehurst, DeChambeau compensated by excelling in hitting greens and putting brilliantly to secure his second U.S. Open title. Schlabach highlights DeChambeau`s putting as a key reason he expects him to contend, noting he is one of the best putters on tour, which is a significant advantage on Oakmont`s notoriously difficult greens.
Paolo Uggetti points out that Bryson DeChambeau has quietly become one of the most consistent performers in major championships, second only to Scottie Scheffler over the past two years. In his last nine major starts, DeChambeau boasts six top-six finishes, including a victory and two runner-up results. Uggetti would be surprised if he doesn`t factor into the competition at Oakmont, as the course seems well-suited to his playing style. However, he is particularly interested in the state of DeChambeau`s approach game, which he feels limited him at the Masters (hitting only 60% of greens) and the PGA Championship (losing nearly half a stroke on approach to the field). While Oakmont`s length and challenging rough certainly favor long hitters like DeChambeau, Uggetti suggests that without improvement in his approach shots (despite having new LA Golf irons), he might experience another near-miss.
How Will Oakmont Challenge the Field This Year?
Mark Schlabach hopes Oakmont will present a brutally difficult test, expressing disappointment if it doesn`t lead to some “carnage.” He observes that recent U.S. Open winners have often scored 6 under or better, with the last six champions collectively finishing 47 under par, which deviates from the championship`s traditional identity. Two-time major champion Xander Schauffele shared this sentiment regarding viewer expectations:
“I don`t think people turn the TV on to watch some of the guys just hit, like, a 200-yard shot on the green, you know what I mean? I think they turn on the U.S. Open to see a guy shooting 8 over and suffer. That`s part of the enjoyment of playing in the U.S. Open for viewers.”
Schlabach walked the course and noted the USGA intends to keep the rough at 5 inches, describing it as “juicy and thick.” Although it was wet earlier in the week, clear, hot weather is forecast, which should dry out the course considerably. He even saw the grounds crew near the 18th hole seemingly “fluffing it up and drying it out” rather than cutting it. Justin Thomas emphasized the mental aspect, stating, “I just think it requires patience and discipline… If you just get lazy, like on any drive, any wedge shot, any chip, any putt, you can kind of look stupid pretty fast, especially at a place like this.” If the weather forecast holds, the greens will firm up and become extremely fast, potentially quicker than any others players have faced this season, aside from Augusta National. Schauffele summarized the feeling around the club: “Anything close to par is what they want here… The members absolutely love their property, and the members absolutely want it to be over par. I know what they`re rooting for.”
Paolo Uggetti offers a different perspective, believing Oakmont will be difficult but not impossible. He argues that it`s important to remember the exceptional skill of today`s players and the advancements in golf technology, particularly drivers, even compared to 2016. The modern game, with its emphasis on skill, speed, and strength from a young age, has produced players like DeChambeau, McIlroy, and several talented amateurs capable of hitting the ball prodigious distances. While Oakmont`s nuances make it far more complex than a simple test of raw power, and its challenges will filter out weaker players, Uggetti feels the depth of talent and the USGA`s experience in setting up courses mean an over-par winning score is improbable. He concludes that while Oakmont will play tough, the current generation of golfers is equipped to handle the challenge.
Identifying a Potential Dark Horse Contender
Mark Schlabach suggests Harris English as a potential dark horse, especially given his 100-1 odds, which he considers a bargain. English is coming off his best performance in a major, finishing second at the PGA Championship. He has been consistently strong in recent significant events, with four consecutive top-12 finishes. English also has a solid track record at the U.S. Open, with three top-eight results in his last five appearances. Schlabach highlights his ability to keep the ball in the fairway, hit greens effectively, and his status as one of the best putters on tour as key attributes that could lead to a strong showing this week.
Paolo Uggetti poses Keegan Bradley as a possibility, noting his current 90-1 odds. He wouldn`t be completely surprised to see Bradley near the top of the leaderboard over the weekend. According to Data Golf, Bradley is considered a top-15 fit for the course profile, largely due to his accuracy off the tee, where he ranks in the top 20 for strokes gained. He also ranks highly in strokes gained: approach (top 15). Uggetti sees this combination of skills as a strong recipe for success at Oakmont and suggests a strong performance could intensify the discussion about whether Bradley should be considered as a playing captain for the U.S. Ryder Cup team at Bethpage.
