The Dallas Stars currently hold a 3-2 series lead over the Colorado Avalanche and have an opportunity to close out their first-round playoff series on Thursday. Dallas secured this advantage with a decisive 6-2 victory in Game 5 against a seasoned Avalanche team that won the Stanley Cup in 2022. For the Stars to wrap things up in Game 6, they will need to win on the road in Colorado. Should the series extend to a seventh game, it would return to Dallas.
According to betting consensus, the Avalanche are favored at home with -193 odds on the moneyline (requiring a $193 bet to win $100), while the Stars are the road underdogs at +160 (a $100 bet would win $160). The total goals over/under is set at 6, with the Over currently favored at -120.
Colorado`s roster is loaded with stars, and arguably the brightest is Nathan MacKinnon, who led the NHL in assists and finished second in points during the regular season. He has recorded seven points throughout this series against Dallas, three of which came in the Avs` Game 1 win (5-1). His player prop for total points in Game 6 is set at 1.5. The SportsLine Projection Model has identified one side of this prop bet as a highly-rated 5-star play. This specific prop is highlighted as a key component of today`s featured NHL same-game parlay for the Stars-Avalanche matchup.
The SportsLine Projection Model utilizes 10,000 simulations for every NHL game. Its top-rated prop picks, evaluated with ratings up to five stars across various player bets, are available under the `Prop Picks` tab. These projections can be valuable tools for constructing winning parlays or same-game parlays on various betting platforms.
Stars-Avalanche Same-Game Parlay Picks (+338 Payout)
Here are the SportsLine model`s three top-rated player prop picks for Thursday`s crucial Game 6 between the Stars and Avalanche:
- Nathan MacKinnon Under 1.5 total points (-146): Rated 5 stars
- Brock Nelson Over 1.5 total shots on goal (-146): Rated 5 stars
- Martin Necas Over 1.5 total shots on goal (-184): Rated 5 stars
Notably, all three of the model`s highest-rated prop plays for Game 6 are focused on Avalanche players and carry a 5-star rating. Starting with MacKinnon, despite averaging 1.4 points per game over the entire series, his production has been closer to one point per game over the last four contests. The model projects a total of just 0.4 points for MacKinnon in Game 6. Furthermore, he has gone Under his total points prop in his last five home games, averaging only 0.8 points during that stretch. Next, Brock Nelson, acquired by Colorado midseason from the New York Islanders, has contributed two assists this series. The model strongly favors the Over on his 1.5 total shots on goal prop, projecting him to record 2.5 shots. Nelson is averaging 2.2 shots on goal per game in this series and has been particularly active at home recently, averaging 3.4 shots over his last five home games, exceeding his prop line in all of them. Finally, Martin Necas, another player who joined the Avalanche via trade this year, is also projected to surpass 1.5 shots on goal. The model forecasts Necas to register 2.9 shots in Game 6. He has cleared this shot prop in eight of his last 15 games against opponents with a winning record, averaging 2.7 shots on goal per game in those matchups.
