Real Madrid, with their storied Champions League history, are always capable of producing magic, especially at the Santiago Bernabeu. As Carlo Ancelotti noted, “In football, anything can happen. A lot of times, something happens in the Bernabeu.”
While history and home advantage are valuable, overturning a three-goal deficit against Europe`s best defense is a monumental task.
In the first leg, Real Madrid struggled to create clear chances at the Emirates Stadium, managing only nine shots for a low expected goal (xG) value. Although Arsenal made some early errors, once they tightened up defensively, Madrid found it difficult to break through Arsenal`s robust backline, led by William Saliba.
Arsenal`s defensive strength is built on exceptional defenders. Jurrien Timber effectively contained Vinicius Junior, and Myles Lewis-Skelly demonstrated impressive anticipation. Rodrygo also found little space against them.
Jakub Kiwior, stepping in for Gabriel, proved his talent and resilience, stating, “After the game I felt really good…but I still feel like it`s not over yet. The most difficult thing is still ahead of us. I`m still cool-headed.”
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Arsenal`s focus and determination are evident throughout the team. They are a serious and resilient side that does not easily concede goals, making it incredibly difficult for opponents to create chances. Their defensive structure is so disciplined that Fulham`s Sander Berge likened it to being “remote-controlled.”
Arsenal`s possession-based approach also serves as a strong defensive tactic. They prioritize defensive stability before committing to attack, and statistically, they concede fewer counter-attacking shots than any other Premier League team, despite their attacking intent.
The last time Arsenal conceded three goals was in December 2023 against Luton, and it has been almost two years since they lost by a three-goal margin, the exact deficit they need to overcome against Madrid.
Brentford manager Thomas Frank, after his team struggled to break down Arsenal`s defense, praised their defensive work ethic and set-piece solidity, stating, “They`re very good defensively, they`re very good on defensive set pieces. So, I think they will be fine.”
While Real Madrid might pose a greater attacking threat than Fulham or Brentford, the first leg showed that Arsenal`s defense is well-prepared. To turn the tie around, Madrid will need an all-out attacking approach from the start, with players like Bellingham and Rodrygo focusing more on attack.
However, Arsenal`s ability to stifle transitions, particularly through Declan Rice, poses a significant challenge. Furthermore, Arsenal`s attacking threats, like Saka and Odegaard, and the danger of Martinelli in open space, can punish any defensive lapses from Madrid.
Real Madrid`s recent defensive record is concerning, with only one clean sheet in their last 10 matches and consistently conceding numerous shots. They have allowed over one expected goal per game this season, and even more in the Champions League. Injuries have further weakened their defense.
Despite Arsenal`s two free-kick goals in the first leg, their open play created more opportunities than Madrid. Arsenal appeared comfortable defensively, even against a Madrid side supposedly aiming for a tight first leg.
Ultimately, while Real Madrid`s history and Bernabeu atmosphere are factors, Arsenal`s strong defensive performance in the first leg suggests that Madrid`s comeback will be a very difficult, if not impossible, task. Unless Madrid can drastically change their approach and overcome Arsenal`s defensive wall, their Champions League journey may end here.
