Following a dominant 3-0 victory in the first leg, Arsenal must remain focused as they travel to Madrid for the crucial second leg. Real Madrid, despite the significant deficit and missing Eduardo Camavinga, are confident in their ability to overturn the result.
Real Madrid struggled to create clear chances in the first leg, managing only three shots on target. While Declan Rice`s two free-kick goals might be difficult to replicate, Madrid cannot afford to play with hesitation. Analyst James Benge believes the tie is already decided. However, Real Madrid has a history of remarkable comebacks. Against a strong Arsenal side with a solid defense, this challenge might be too great. Real Madrid`s recent form has been inconsistent, failing to win three of their last five matches across all competitions, putting their La Liga hopes and Champions League aspirations in jeopardy.
Here`s a look at the key aspects of the match:
Match Details
- Date: Wednesday, April 16
- Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabeu — Madrid, Spain
- Live stream: Paramount+
- Odds: Real Madrid -140; Draw +300; Arsenal +340
First Leg Summary
Real Madrid had early opportunities in the first leg against Arsenal, but the momentum shifted after Rice scored a fantastic free kick. Arsenal`s defense effectively contained Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior. Rice then added another impressive goal, and Mikel Merino further extended Arsenal`s lead. Camavinga`s red card means he will be unavailable for Real Madrid in this second leg. However, changes to the lineup were expected regardless, following the heavy defeat.
Key Matchup
Kylian Mbappe to have 3+ shots on target (+110): This game is crucial for Mbappe`s legacy. Even if Real Madrid are eliminated, they will want to compete fiercely, placing the spotlight on Mbappe. He was brought in to elevate Real Madrid in European competitions. While he has shown glimpses of this, the attack has sometimes lacked balance in integrating him. For Real Madrid to win, Mbappe likely needs a standout performance.
What`s at Stake
Legacy Defining Moment. Arsenal are seeking their first Champions League title in their history and are on the verge of defeating one of the competition`s most successful teams, Real Madrid. For Arsenal, who have been close to Premier League success under Mikel Arteta, this is a significant opportunity to solidify their place among Europe`s elite. Overcoming Real Madrid could establish Arsenal as a strong contender for the title, even with Paris Saint-Germain potentially awaiting in the next round. For Real Madrid and Ancelotti, with speculation surrounding his future, winning another Champions League title would be the ultimate achievement, especially if it is his last season. Securing back-to-back titles is a difficult feat, but if any team can achieve it, it`s Real Madrid.
Projected Starting Lineups
Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois, Lucas Vazquez, Raul Asencio, Antonio Rudiger, Francisco Garcia, Aurelien Tchouameni, Fede Valverde, Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior, Kylian Mbappe
Arsenal: David Raya, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Jakub Kiwior, William Saliba, Jurrien Timber, Mikel Merino, Declan Rice, Martin Odegaard, Gabriel Martinelli, Leandro Trossard, Bukayo Saka
Player Spotlight
Jakub Kiwior, Arsenal: Gabriel`s injury raised concerns about Arsenal`s defense, but Arteta has consistently prepared capable replacements. Kiwior stepped into central defense and performed impressively in the first leg. Replicating that performance at the Santiago Bernabeu presents a different challenge. If Kiwior can maintain his first-leg form, Arsenal`s progression is likely. If not, it could be a tense match.
Key Game Dynamic
First Goal Crucial. In a match of this magnitude, the first goal is paramount. An early Real Madrid goal within the first 20 minutes could instill doubt in Arsenal. Conversely, an Arsenal goal would make Real Madrid`s task of overcoming a four-goal deficit even more daunting. While Champions League comebacks from three goals down have occurred, no team has ever recovered from a four-goal deficit. Arsenal should be confident that scoring once will be enough, as it would require Real Madrid to score four just to force extra time.
Match Prediction
Real Madrid, led by Mbappe, will pressure Arsenal, but scoring three goals against the Gunners is a significant challenge. Arsenal have not conceded three goals in any game this season. Real Madrid have struggled to keep clean sheets recently, suggesting they might need four goals to even reach extra time. Arsenal have been known to falter in high-pressure situations in the past, but this season appears different.
With Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard fit, Arsenal are a stronger team and that should be enough to secure a place in the next round, despite a potential away defeat. Prediction: Real Madrid 2, Arsenal 1
