Premier League Race for Champions League Spots: Can Chelsea, Man City and Newcastle Hold Off a Crowded Field?

As the Premier League season approaches its final stretch with only nine matchdays remaining, the fight for Champions League qualification is intensifying. While Liverpool and Arsenal are almost certain to secure the top two spots, and some teams at the bottom appear destined for relegation, the real excitement lies in determining which teams will grab the coveted Champions League places.

With potentially up to five Champions League spots available for English teams next season due to England`s strong performance in European competitions, a large group of clubs believes they have a chance to qualify.

Nottingham Forest currently sits in third place, but questions remain about whether their league position truly reflects their overall performance. Chelsea and Manchester City, positioned fourth and fifth respectively, have both demonstrated periods of top-tier form, although consistency has been an issue.

Newcastle, boosted by their recent EFL Cup victory, are also in the mix. Aston Villa, a Champions League quarter-finalist, along with Brighton, Fulham, and Bournemouth, are all within striking distance of the top five, making for a thrilling end to the season. Let`s examine the remaining fixtures to assess each team`s chances of securing a Champions League spot.

It`s important to note that the Premier League is guaranteed four Champions League qualification spots. However, due to the high likelihood of English teams achieving a top-two coefficient performance in European competitions, it is widely expected that there will be at least five English teams in the Champions League next season. This number could increase further if Aston Villa wins the Champions League or if Tottenham or Manchester United win the Europa League this season.

Gameweek 30

• Arsenal 2, Fulham 1
• Wolves 0, West Ham 1
• Nottingham Forest 2, Manchester United 2
• Bournemouth 2, Ipswich 1
• Brighton 1, Aston Villa 1
• Manchester City 3, Leicester 0
• Newcastle 2, Brentford 1
• Southampton 0, Crystal Palace 2
• Liverpool 1, Everton 0
• Chelsea 2, Tottenham 2

Fulham`s ability to trouble Arsenal might be waning, especially with Bukayo Saka`s return strengthening the Gunners` attack. Fulham could potentially drop to 10th place, with Bournemouth poised to overtake them given their favorable home fixture against Ipswich. The final weeks may hinge on avoiding upsets against lower-ranked teams, and Manchester City is unlikely to stumble against Leicester.

Chelsea, however, could face a tougher challenge against Tottenham. While Stamford Bridge hasn`t traditionally been a happy ground for Spurs, Ange Postecoglou`s team, potentially with Dejan Kulusevski back to full fitness, could pose a significant threat and cause an upset.

Gameweek 31

• Everton 1, Arsenal 1
• Crystal Palace 2, Brighton 1
• Ipswich 2, Wolves 0
• West Ham 2, Bournemouth 2
• Aston Villa 3, Nottingham Forest 1
• Brentford 0, Chelsea 0
• Fulham 1, Liverpool 3
• Tottenham 2, Southampton 0
• Manchester United 0, Manchester City 1
• Leicester 0, Newcastle 2

Nottingham Forest`s match against Aston Villa could be pivotal. A win could give them crucial breathing room, while a loss could pull them back into the congested mid-table. A couple of poor results could see Nuno Espirito Santo`s side within 10 points of 11th place, which would still be considered a successful season for them.

This period also presents an opportunity for Newcastle to solidify their position in the top five race.

Gameweek 32

• Manchester City 2, Crystal Palace 1
• Brighton 1, Leicester 0
• Nottingham Forest 2, Everton 0
• Southampton 1, Aston Villa 0
• Arsenal 1, Brentford 0
• Chelsea 3, Ipswich 0
• Liverpool 2, West Ham 1
• Wolves 1, Tottenham 0
• Newcastle 3, Manchester United 1
• Bournemouth 3, Fulham 2

Game in hand

• Newcastle 2, Crystal Palace 2

Crystal Palace, with strong results in two challenging away games, could unexpectedly enter the European qualification picture. However, securing points against Manchester City at the Etihad and Newcastle at St. James` Park will be difficult. The Newcastle game might offer a slightly better opportunity for Palace, as Newcastle will have less rest after playing Manchester United.

Other notable matches in this gameweek include Southampton facing Aston Villa amidst Villa`s Champions League quarter-final commitments, potentially offering Southampton a chance for a win. Meanwhile, Fulham`s hopes of Champions League qualification could diminish if they fail to win against Bournemouth. While it`s still early to rule out teams seventh or below, bridging a six-point gap in as many games will require significant favors.

Predicted partial table on April 17

Gameweek 33

• Brentford 2, Brighton 0
• Crystal Palace 2, Bournemouth 2
• Everton 0, Manchester City 1
• West Ham 1, Southampton 0
• Aston Villa 3, Newcastle 2
• Fulham 0, Chelsea 1
• Ipswich 0, Arsenal 2
• Manchester United 2, Wolves 1
• Leicester 1, Liverpool 3
• Tottenham 2, Nottingham Forest 1

Gameweek 33 features two crucial matches in the Champions League race. Aston Villa`s game against Newcastle could open doors for themselves, Bournemouth, and Brighton if they win. A loss for Villa could solidify the top six. Tottenham could also play a significant role in the top-five race, despite pre-season expectations. Their underlying performance data suggests they are not far behind Nottingham Forest, and consistent intensity could give them a chance.

Gameweek 34

• Chelsea 2, Everton 0
• Brighton 2, West Ham 1
• Newcastle 3, Ipswich 0
• Nottingham Forest 1, Brentford 0
• Southampton 0, Fulham 0
• Wolves 1, Leicester 2
• Arsenal 1, Crystal Palace 1
• Bournemouth 2, Manchester United 0
• Liverpool 3, Tottenham 1
• Manchester City 2, Aston Villa 0

Chelsea`s game against Everton is one of their most important of the season. Their final four weeks include a challenging run of fixtures, including Liverpool at home and Newcastle away, potentially culminating in a fifth-place decider against Nottingham Forest on the final day.

Manchester City`s match against Aston Villa could be decisive, potentially eliminating Villa from top-four contention and possibly European qualification altogether. This gameweek could also see Liverpool`s Premier League title confirmed.

Gameweek 35

• Manchester City 4, Wolves 1
• Aston Villa 2, Fulham 1
• Brentford 3, Manchester United 1
• Everton 0, Ipswich 1
• Leicester 2, Southampton 1
• West Ham 1, Tottenham 1
• Arsenal 2, Bournemouth 0
• Brighton 2, Newcastle 2
• Chelsea 1, Liverpool 1
• Crystal Palace 1, Nottingham Forest 1

Gameweek 35 could significantly narrow the Champions League contenders to four teams vying for three spots. A Manchester City win against Wolves would create a four-point gap, especially with Newcastle, Chelsea, and Nottingham Forest all facing tough fixtures.

Brighton and Bournemouth could potentially maintain their challenge with wins against Newcastle and Arsenal respectively. However, for these teams to still be in Champions League contention at this stage is a remarkable achievement, and their challenge may be nearing its end.

Predicted partial table on May 5

Gameweek 36

• Bournemouth 2, Aston Villa 2
• Fulham 1, Everton 0
• Ipswich 1, Brentford 1
• Liverpool 1, Arsenal 2
• Manchester United 1, West Ham 0
• Newcastle 1, Chelsea 1
• Nottingham Forest 1, Leicester 0
• Southampton 0, Manchester City 2
• Tottenham 1, Crystal Palace 2
• Wolves 2, Brighton 1

Newcastle and Chelsea face off in the first of what could be two Champions League qualification play-offs in the final rounds. Newcastle are slight favorites, but a positive result for Chelsea would keep their fate in their own hands. Nottingham Forest has good opportunities to gain points against Leicester and West Ham, although the latter game could be tricky as Forest sometimes struggles to dictate play.

Gameweek 37

• Arsenal 1, Newcastle 1
• Aston Villa 1, Tottenham 0
• Brentford 1, Fulham 2
• Brighton 2, Liverpool 2
• Chelsea 3, Manchester United 1
• Crystal Palace 1, Wolves 0
• Everton 2, Southampton 0
• Leicester 1, Ipswich 2
• Manchester City 2, Bournemouth 1
• West Ham 1, Nottingham Forest 1

These results would cause significant shifts in the standings. Newcastle has historically troubled Arsenal, potentially hindering both teams. Even if Nottingham Forest matches Newcastle`s result against West Ham, Chelsea could secure an advantage. A draw between Forest and Chelsea on the final day could mean Newcastle needs a significant goal difference swing to overtake Chelsea, a scenario that would be highly dramatic.

Gameweek 38

• Bournemouth 2, Leicester 1
• Fulham 1, Manchester City 1
• Ipswich 2, West Ham 2
• Liverpool 3, Crystal Palace 0
• Manchester United 1, Aston Villa 0
• Newcastle 3, Everton 0
• Nottingham Forest 1, Chelsea 2
• Southampton 0, Arsenal 3
• Tottenham 3, Brighton 3
• Wolves 2, Brentford 1

While a draw between Chelsea and Nottingham Forest is possible, the high stakes and public scrutiny might deter any perceived collusion to lock Newcastle out of the top six, especially given the Premier League`s need to avoid further legal issues. Newcastle might aim to build a significant early lead against a relaxed Everton side, potentially influencing Chelsea`s approach. This final day could see dramatic twists, and it`s likely that two serious Champions League contenders will face off with everything on the line. As always in the Premier League, expect the unexpected.

Predicted final table