The 2025 Stanley Cup playoff conference semifinals between the Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs comes down to a winner-take-all Game 7 on Sunday. Toronto forced this decisive game by snapping a three-game losing streak with a 2-0 victory in Game 6 in Florida on Friday. The crucial Game 7 is set to take place at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, with puck drop scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.
In the latest betting odds for this high-stakes matchup, Florida enters as the favorite on the money line at -130, requiring a $130 wager to win $100. Toronto is listed as the underdog at +109, offering a $109 profit on a $100 bet. The total number of goals for the game is set with an over/under of 5.5. Florida also holds a puck line advantage at -1.5 with odds of +205. For expert analysis and predictions on the Maple Leafs vs. Panthers game, consulting sophisticated sports simulation models is recommended.
A specific projection model, known for simulating every NHL game 10,000 times, has shown considerable success during the 2025 NHL playoffs. Entering the second week of the conference semifinals, the model boasts a combined record of 79-55 on its top-rated NHL puck-line and over/under betting selections, providing significant returns for those who have followed its guidance.
Top Betting Picks for Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Game 7
Based on the model`s analysis, here are some of the best bets for Sunday`s Game 7:
Over 5.5 Total Goals
Analysis suggests betting the Over on 5.5 total goals offers value at current odds. Four of the previous six games in this series have surpassed this total, featuring seven or more goals, notably including all three games played in Toronto (scores were 5-4, 4-3, and 6-1). Both the Maple Leafs and the Panthers demonstrated strong offensive capabilities during the regular season. Toronto ranked seventh in the league with an average of 3.26 goals per game, while Florida was 15th, scoring at a rate of 3.0 goals per contest. The projection model aligns with this outlook, forecasting the Over to hit in over 50% of its simulations.
This prediction is just one of the top recommendations from the model. Further picks covering every game, including more insights for the 2025 NHL playoffs, are available from this model, recognized for its successful top-rated NHL betting picks.
Carter Verhaeghe Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
A recommended player prop bet is for Florida`s Carter Verhaeghe to register over 2.5 shots on goal. Verhaeghe has averaged 2.5 shots per game in this series and is second on the Panthers in total shot attempts per game (6.5). He has been an offensive threat, scoring two goals in his last four games, including a key goal in Game 4 that helped tie the series. He actively sought shots in Game 6 with four attempts. In a decisive Game 7 scenario, the model projects that the forward, who scored 20 goals in the regular season, will continue to be aggressive, exceeding the 2.5 shot threshold.
Auston Matthews Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
For Toronto, betting on Auston Matthews to record over 3.5 shots on goal is another suggested play. Matthews, the team`s top-line center, scored his third goal of the postseason in Game 6 and has consistently registered three or more shots on goal in all but one playoff game this year. He has accumulated 24 total shots through the first six games of the series. As one of Toronto`s limited goal scorers over the past three games, the model anticipates Matthews maintaining an aggressive approach, projecting him to surpass 3.5 shots on goal.
For a complete set of expert predictions and best bets for Sunday`s critical Game 7 and the remainder of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs, consult the full analysis provided by the sophisticated sports simulation model.
