The Florida Panthers face a two-game deficit as they host the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 3 of their 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs conference semifinal series on Friday. The Maple Leafs secured victories in Games 1 and 2 in Toronto, rallying after falling behind in both contests and winning each by a single goal against the defending Stanley Cup champions. The third game is scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Florida.
In the latest betting odds for the matchup, Florida is listed as the favorite on the money line. Toronto enters as the underdog. The over/under for the total number of goals scored is set at 6, with Florida also favored on the puck line at -1.5. For those looking to place wagers, insights from a reputable sports projection model are available.
A sports simulation model, which has been successful with its top-rated NHL puck-line and over/under bets in the 2025 playoffs, has run extensive simulations for this game. Here are some of its recommended picks for the Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 3:
Maple Leafs +1.5
The model projects that the Maple Leafs will keep Game 3 competitive and cover the +1.5 puck line in nearly 80% of simulations. This prediction is supported by recent history, as four of the last five games between these teams (including both regular season and playoff contests) have been decided by a single goal. Furthermore, five of Toronto`s eight playoff games this year have also been one-goal decisions, with three going into overtime.
Brad Marchand 1+ Points
Veteran forward Brad Marchand has accumulated seven points (one goal, six assists) in his seven playoff games this season, recording at least one point in four consecutive appearances. Notably, he has registered three points in two playoff games against the Maple Leafs and six points (two goals, four assists) across six regular-season games against them this year.
Auston Matthews Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
Toronto`s Auston Matthews is tied for the lead among players still competing in the playoffs with 29 shots on goal through eight games. He has consistently driven offense, registering three or more shots in seven of those eight contests.
