The North London Derby stands as one of football`s most fervent rivalries, steeped in history and local pride. Yet, as the two giants of English football prepared to clash for the first time outside the United Kingdom in a pre-season friendly in Hong Kong, an undeniable reality loomed large: the gap between Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur has stretched to unprecedented proportions. A remarkable 36 points separated the clubs last season, a chasm so wide one has to look back nearly half a century to find a similar disparity, when Spurs endured a brief spell in the second tier.
Arsenal concluded the 2024-25 Premier League campaign in their now-familiar second-place position, narrowly missing out on the title but cementing their place among the league`s elite. Tottenham, on the other hand, navigated a season of contrasting fortunes: a puzzling 17th-place finish in the league, just above the relegation zone, yet somehow managing to clinch the Europa League trophy. This peculiar outcome led to the departure of Ange Postecoglou, making way for Thomas Frank, formerly of Brentford, to take the helm at Spurs.
Frank`s immediate challenge is clear: to reignite a struggling side and, perhaps more symbolically, to halt a daunting six-game winless streak against their arch-rivals. While pre-season friendlies typically offer little more than fitness drills, this particular encounter served as an early barometer of Tottenham`s progress under new management, and a stark reminder of the monumental task ahead.
The Gunners` Lofty Perch: What Constitutes a `Bad` Season?
For Arsenal, last season`s performance, while ultimately falling short of a title, arguably represented a remarkably resilient outcome given the circumstances. Key attacking players such as Gabriel Jesus, Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli, and Martin Odegaard all faced significant spells on the sidelines due to injury. Despite these considerable setbacks, the Gunners never genuinely risked slipping out of the top four. Indeed, new sporting director Andrea Berta has diligently bolstered the squad depth, aiming to ensure two international-caliber players are available for almost every position.
Arsenal`s aspirations are unambiguous: a Premier League title or a Champions League triumph. So, what defines a “floor” for a club of this ambition? Setting aside unforeseen calamitous events, it`s increasingly difficult to envision Arsenal dropping outside the top four. A third-place finish, for them, might constitute a `bad` season – a testament to their current standing. The irony, of course, is that a “worst-case scenario” for Arsenal often looks like a dream season for many other Premier League clubs. Even with Manchester City and Liverpool consistently at the summit, and emerging threats from Chelsea and potentially Newcastle, Arsenal`s baseline appears firmly entrenched in the Champions League qualification spots.
Spurs` Uphill Battle and New Hope Under Frank
Tottenham`s previous season presents a complex picture. An early surge of form under Postecoglou gave way to a brutal injury crisis, particularly in defense, which derailed their league aspirations. While the Europa League provided a welcome piece of silverware and a route back to elite European competition, their 17th-place league finish and the league`s 15th-best expected goal difference (conceding a concerning 65 goals) painted a grim domestic picture.
The summer transfer window saw Tottenham confirm Mathys Tel`s loan move as permanent and secure Mohamed Kudus as a marquee signing, arriving from West Ham. Investment in defensive areas appears focused on the long-term, bringing in young talents like Kota Takai. However, the crucial deep-lying midfielder, a glaring need last season, has yet to materialize. Thomas Frank, renowned for his tactical acumen and his ability to build defensively solid teams (his Brentford side consistently conceded fewer expected goals than Spurs over the past four seasons), will undoubtedly aim to tighten up the backline. Improved fitness across the squad should also contribute to better defensive output.
But can Tottenham realistically hope to bridge the gargantuan 36-point gap to their greatest rivals? Bookmakers currently rank Spurs as approximately the eighth most likely team to qualify for the Champions League, a seemingly fair assessment of their current squad. While promising young talents like Destiny Udogie and Lucas Bergvall show immense future potential, and veterans such as Heung-min Son and Richarlison offer experience, the squad perhaps lacks a critical mass of players hitting their prime at 24. Furthermore, key defensive player Micky van de Ven has struggled with availability.
The Myth of the `Perfect Storm`: Can Tottenham Surpass Arsenal?
The hypothetical question lingers: could a top ten percentile season for Tottenham, where everything goes right – minimal injuries, new signings instantly click, and Frank`s tactical mastery truly transforms the team – be enough to outpace Arsenal, even if the Gunners experience an exceptionally poor campaign? Realistically, Tottenham`s ceiling in a `perfect` scenario might see them battling for the cusp of Champions League contention, particularly if other traditional `big six` clubs falter significantly.
However, for Spurs` ceiling to eclipse Arsenal`s floor in a season that is even vaguely normal, appears to be an improbable fantasy. It would necessitate an almost flawless Tottenham campaign coinciding with a veritable storm of misfortune at the Emirates Stadium. While the North London Derby has a rich history of delivering the unexpected – five-goal comebacks in the same year, for instance – the cold, hard statistics suggest that closing such a substantial gap requires more than just hope; it demands a seismic shift in fortunes for both clubs simultaneously.
Ultimately, while the friendly in Hong Kong offered an early glimpse, it`s the 38-game league season where the true narrative will unfold. For Tottenham, every match is an opportunity to prove the bookmakers wrong and to chip away at that daunting points difference. For Arsenal, it`s about maintaining their elite status and, perhaps, finally taking that coveted top step. The rivalry endures, regardless of the statistical divide, always promising drama, and occasionally, the truly strange.
