The Ottawa Senators face elimination as they host the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday. Toronto currently holds a dominant 3-0 lead in the series, securing a decisive 6-2 victory in Game 1 and then winning close 3-2 contests in overtime in Games 2 and 3. Historically, only four teams in the NHL have managed to come back from a 3-0 series deficit to advance; the most recent example was the Los Angeles Kings in 2014. For the Senators to have any chance of becoming the fifth team to achieve this rare feat, they absolutely must win Saturday`s game.
According to SportsLine consensus odds, the Senators are positioned as slight -113 money-line favorites playing on their home ice (requiring a $113 wager to win $100), with the Maple Leafs close behind at -107. The projected total for goals scored in the game is set at 5.5 (over/under).
This series features key stars on both sides, including Toronto`s prominent players, Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews. Marner had an excellent 2024-25 season, reaching the 100-point milestone for the first time in his career. Matthews, who missed 15 games, recorded his lowest point total since the shortened 2020-21 season. These two Maple Leafs forwards are central to the recommended NHL same-game parlay for Saturday, which was generated using the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times and provides top-rated prop picks for each game under the `Prop Picks` section. These picks are assigned ratings of up to five stars and cover various player prop betting opportunities, offering valuable insights for building successful parlays on different betting platforms or crafting same-game parlays.
Below are the three highest-rated player prop picks identified by the SportsLine model for the Maple Leafs-Senators Game 4 matchup on Saturday, including the potential payout if combined into a same-game parlay.
Maple Leafs-Senators SGP (+348)
- Mitch Marner Under 1.5 total points (-250): 5 stars
- Auston Matthews Under 1.5 total points (-240): 4.5 stars
- Tim Stutzle Under 0.5 total points (+126): 4 stars
The model indicates high confidence that both Marner and Matthews will finish with fewer than 1.5 total points in Saturday`s game, marking these as the top-rated plays. While Marner has six points and Matthews five points in the series so far, the model specifically projects Marner to contribute 0.3 points and Matthews 0.5 points in Game 4. Both players have finished below their total points prop line in four of their last five games against teams with middle-third defensive ratings. Regarding the Senators, Tim Stutzle, who led the team in points this season, is also projected to finish under his 0.5 point prop line. The 23-year-old winger has managed just one point in the series, and the model forecasts him to record 0.3 points on Saturday. He has also finished under his points prop in four of his last five games where the Senators were favored.
