The Toronto Maple Leafs are set to kick off their Stanley Cup campaign for the first time since 1967 as they host the Ottawa Senators in Game 1 of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs first round. After clinching the Atlantic Division title, Toronto enters the playoffs with an impressive 108 points in the Eastern Conference. The Ottawa Senators, still in pursuit of their first Stanley Cup, qualified as the top wild-card team in the Eastern Conference this season.
The puck will drop at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. According to the latest odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, Toronto is favored with a -164 money line, meaning a $164 bet is needed to win $100. Ottawa is the underdog at +138, offering a $138 win for a $100 bet. The over/under for the game is set at 5.5 total goals. It`s wise to consult NHL predictions from proven models before making any betting decisions on the Senators vs. Maple Leafs game.
The SportsLine Projection Model, known for its accuracy in simulating NHL games 10,000 times, showed profitability during the 2024-25 regular season. It particularly excelled in top-rated puck-line and over/under picks, achieving a 77-53 record and generating over $1,600 in profit for $100 bettors. Following this model could lead to significant returns for those using sportsbooks and betting apps.
Here are the model`s top three picks for the Maple Leafs vs. Senators game on Sunday:
Maple Leafs to Win (Money Line -160)
Despite Ottawa`s 3-0 sweep in the season series against Toronto, making Toronto not an overwhelming favorite at home for Game 1, betting trends suggest Toronto has a strong advantage. The Maple Leafs have been highly profitable for money-line bettors this season, returning +1061 in total, and have a solid 27-14 home record, yielding +360 in profit. Furthermore, Toronto enters the 2025 NHL playoffs with strong momentum, boasting a 13-3 record since March 17. The model predicts a 62% chance of a Maple Leafs victory, suggesting they will carry this momentum into the postseason. FanDuel offers a favorable money line for Toronto at -160.
Over 5.5 Goals (-110)
While the first two games between these teams saw only three combined goals each, their most recent matchup on March 15 had a total of six goals. Ottawa also comes into the playoffs with a five-game streak of games going over the total. The model projects key players like Auston Matthews and William Nylander for Toronto, and Brady Tkachuk for Ottawa, to have a significant chance of scoring. With a projected total of 5.6 goals, the model leans towards the Over.
Auston Matthews as Anytime Goalscorer (+117)
Auston Matthews, a dynamic center, has been a consistent point producer, averaging well over a point per game this season and scoring 33 goals in 67 games, including one in his last three regular-season games. He has historically performed well against the Senators, with 25 goals in 35 career games, including two goals in three games this year. The model estimates nearly a 60% likelihood of him scoring in this game. Caesars Sportsbook lists his odds at +117 to score at any point in the game, and for those seeking higher odds, he is at +900 to score the first goal.
Looking for More NHL Picks?
These are the top picks for the Maple Leafs game on Sunday. For picks on every game, visit SportsLine and consult their model, which finished the season with a combined 77-53 record on over/under and puck-line picks.
Matt Severance, ranked as the No. 1 NHL expert at SportsLine, enters the NHL playoffs on a 120-62 run on NHL sides picks, providing a return of $2,490 for $100 bettors. For his expert picks for the NHL playoffs, check out SportsLine.
