Despite showing some differences during their 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs run, the Toronto Maple Leafs ultimately faced the same outcome. Their season ended with a resounding 6-1 defeat to the Florida Panthers in Game 7 at Scotiabank Arena, met by disappointed boos from the home crowd.
Since their promising performance against the Washington Capitals in the 2017 playoffs, the Maple Leafs have made the postseason for nine consecutive years. During this period, their playoff record includes six Game 7 losses, only two trips past the first round, and a total of just 31 wins. To put this in perspective, the Florida Panthers, who are the current champions, have accumulated 37 playoff wins in just the last three years.
Given their persistent lack of playoff success and looming contract situations, it`s highly probable that the Maple Leafs roster will look significantly altered for the start of the 2025-26 season. Key players, Mitch Marner and John Tavares, both part of the team`s so-called `Core Four`, are approaching free agency. Furthermore, Matthew Knies, a 22-year-old forward, is due to become a restricted free agent. He significantly boosted his value this past season with a strong performance, scoring 29 goals and adding 29 assists.
Should They Make Major Changes?
The argument for parting ways with Tavares and Marner is straightforward. Toronto still possesses elite talent in their prime with Auston Matthews and William Nylander. If Matthew Knies, who is emerging as a significant player, is re-signed this summer, he adds another dynamic piece. Theoretically, the funds freed up by not re-signing Tavares and Marner could be allocated to strengthen the secondary players around Matthews, Nylander, and Knies. The analysis shows that the `Core Four` combined with Knies accounted for most of Toronto`s offensive production in the playoffs, with the rest of the roster contributing very little.
| Core Four + Knies | Rest of team | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 21 | 15 |
| Assists | 32 | 31 |
| Points | 53 | 46 |
After repeatedly bringing back the same core group and achieving the same disappointing results, it`s understandable why the Maple Leafs might be strongly considering dismantling the core and undertaking significant roster overhauls. Considering the visible passion of the fanbase, often seen in Maple Leaf Square or represented by the abundance of jerseys, such a drastic plan would likely be welcomed by many.
However, is there a compelling argument for maintaining the current core and giving this group a few more opportunities to succeed? This approach might be more viable than it initially appears.
The Argument Against Sweeping Changes
Firstly, the players within the `Core Four` (along with Knies) are undeniably talented. Mitch Marner is a dynamic player capable of reaching the 100-point mark and impacting all areas of the ice when performing at his peak. John Tavares, at age 34, just completed a productive season with 38 goals and 74 points.
Such high-caliber players are difficult to find and even harder to replace, particularly via free agency. The upcoming 2025 free agent market is considered relatively weak, with Marner and Tavares being among the most desirable players available. While names like Matt Duchene, Sam Bennett, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Brock Boeser are expected to be free agents, they are generally considered good-to-great players with mixed playoff track records. They are unlikely to adequately fill the void left by potentially losing Tavares and Marner, especially considering the significant contracts they will likely command.
This situation suggests that Toronto`s general manager, Brad Treliving, would need to explore creative solutions through trades or restricted free agency. However, there are significant obstacles here as well. The Maple Leafs currently lack a first-round draft pick in the next three years and only possess two second-round selections in that same timeframe. This limited draft capital makes it challenging to execute a major trade without trading away existing roster players. Furthermore, they are unlikely to have the necessary assets to make a significant splash by signing a restricted free agent to an offer sheet.
Given these constraints, it`s plausible the team could decline in the 2025-26 season if Marner and Tavares depart.
The calls for change in Toronto are understandable and perhaps justified. The NHL prioritizes results, and this core group has repeatedly fallen short in the playoffs. However, the question remains: how much better off would the team truly be without key players like Marner and Tavares? The reality might be less optimistic than some believe. While it might require John Tavares accepting a lower salary or Mitch Marner signing for less than his market value, allowing this current group a few more attempts to finally break through might be the most promising short-term strategy for the Maple Leafs.
