Is Champions League qualification next season truly assured for Manchester City? Setting aside the significant issue of 115 charges for a moment, consider their performance in a lackluster 0-0 draw at Old Trafford. If they repeat this level of play in their next seven matches, both Newcastle United and Aston Villa could surpass the current champions in the league standings.
Despite their usual dominance in possession, City, playing without Erling Haaland, managed only nine shots in this game, totaling a low 0.49 expected goals. This is their third-lowest expected goals tally under Pep Guardiola in the Premier League. Unlike a win against West Ham or a loss to Arsenal, this result isn`t easily dismissed as an anomaly or a game against a top-tier opponent. This was a City team that is built to create scoring opportunities for Haaland, and without him, they appeared directionless in attack.
Outside the penalty area, City maintained their structured play. They controlled territory completely, completing 224 passes in United`s half by halftime, more than three times United`s passes in City`s half. The pattern continued in the final third, but surprisingly, within the penalty area, United actually had more possessions, 13 to 10.
City had control but lacked genuine threat. United made it difficult for them to penetrate the penalty area, effectively using a deep 5-4-1 defensive formation, minimizing the space between their defense and Rasmus Hojlund. However, dealing with such defensive setups is a challenge City has consistently faced for nearly a decade. They were once adept at breaking down these defenses, but more recently, they`ve relied on overpowering them with a strong central striker.
A team designed to utilize Haaland struggled to find an attacking identity without their main striker. The outgoing Kevin De Bruyne returned to a more advanced position, reminiscent of pre-Haaland tactics, but this required supporting runs and penalty box threats moving beyond him. While Omar Marmoush showed flashes of energy, it wasn`t enough, especially as Ilkay Gundogan and Bernardo Silva no longer possess the stamina for deep runs into the box like they once did.
Phil Foden has been given ample opportunities to prove he can be the consistent goal-scoring threat he was last season. It`s been suggested for some time that the English international should be ready to take on De Bruyne`s role as he departs. Now is the moment for Foden to step up, yet the 24-year-old still seems most comfortable operating on the fringes of the game. Despite being the current PFA Player of the Year, his award felt somewhat unusual, even considering his impressive output in the 2023-24 season. Foden has had brilliant moments, but did he consistently influence the outcome of major games in the way Guardiola needed against United?
City needed Foden to elevate his game in Haaland’s absence. He had one missed chance early in the second half and little else.
If excitement was to be found in this game, it was more likely to come from a player in a red shirt. United adopted a challenging strategy of launching rapid counter-attacks, often starting from their own penalty area and targeting City`s end. They came close to scoring on several occasions, starting with a free kick just outside the box, earned by Alejandro Garnacho`s solo counter. A better connection from Garnacho at the far post could have provided Diogo Dalot with an assist. Patrick Dorgu also came close, and a powerful shot from Joshua Zirkzee in the second half might have broken the deadlock.
Bruno Fernandes was central to United`s best attacking play. Attacks became dangerous when the ball reached him, with each pass perfectly timed to challenge the City defense. He led United in entries into the final third, chances created, and ball recoveries. Across both teams, he was the player who seemed most determined to push for a win.
Considering City`s current situation, their lack of urgency is surprising. Aston Villa gained points this weekend and are in excellent form, unmatched by most other top-five teams. Newcastle have two games in hand; winning just one would put them ahead of City in the top five. With Haaland and Rodri in the lineup, there would be little cause for concern in the remaining seven games. However, reinforcements aren`t arriving, and if City continues to perform like this for the next month and a half, their season could face serious difficulties.
