The field at the Club World Cup has been cut in half. Despite some unexpected results along the way, the knockout stage participants largely align with pre-tournament expectations.
Certainly, Atletico Madrid`s early exit was a surprise, but Group B was always anticipated to be challenging, where the presence of two European powerhouses created potential for an upset. Other surprising outcomes included Chelsea`s loss to Flamengo and Benfica defeating Bayern Munich. Nevertheless, at the conclusion of the group stage, only three UEFA representatives were eliminated, with the five wealthiest clubs successfully advancing. They are joined by the team featuring Lionel Messi and another capable of investing heavily in Spanish veterans.
This competition, therefore, isn`t shaping up to be one for the underdogs. But among the remaining major teams, who is the favorite to clinch the title? Here are the 16 surviving teams, ranked based on our assessment of their winning probability in the Club World Cup. It`s worth reiterating that stronger teams might face significantly tougher draws, as is clearly the case for clubs like Inter Miami. With that in mind, let`s dive into the rankings:
1. Manchester City (+1)
The only team with a perfect record in the group stages, Manchester City have quickly integrated their new signings and are carefully managing Rodri`s minutes, potentially allowing him to return to peak form in time for the new Premier League season. Pep Guardiola described their 5-2 victory over Juventus as their best performance “on and off the ball” in a long time. He noted the players` commitment and happiness with the win against a top side. While just one game, he felt the players rediscovered what it felt like to be a strong unit. He`s right. Coupled with a favorable draw, they look like the team to beat.
2. Paris Saint-Germain (-1)
There`s very little separating PSG from the top spot. Perhaps the slight difference comes down to the overall impression left by PSG during their defeat to Botafogo. This is a team that appeared to have reached its primary goal by winning the Champions League, and now seems less concerned about losing games in the Club World Cup after achieving something none of their predecessors did.
3. Real Madrid (–)
Clearly still a work in progress compared to the teams above them, Xabi Alonso`s side also haven`t faced a particularly challenging test in the tournament so far. However, the confident way they dispatched Salzburg is promising. Based on the last round of fixtures, Juventus shouldn`t pose an excessive challenge, paving a potentially favorable route to the semifinals. The key question is whether their system and strongest starting XI will be fully established by the time they reach that stage.
4. Chelsea (+2)
Enzo Maresca`s team hasn`t performed exceptionally well throughout this competition and perhaps deserved to lose more convincingly to Flamengo. What they have benefited from, however, is luck, especially thanks to Andreas Schjelderup`s goal securing Benfica top spot over Bayern Munich. This outcome places Chelsea in a considerably more favorable section of the draw, even though both Benfica and the winner of Palmeiras vs. Botafogo could provide significant challenges. They should be considered favorites for a semifinal spot, and from there, anything is possible.
5. Bayern Munich (-1)
Anyone who finished the European season feeling somewhat skeptical about Bayern`s capabilities likely hasn`t had those doubts dispelled by the Club World Cup. They easily defeated the team they were expected to dominate heavily but struggled against opponents only slightly below them in quality. Perhaps their drop to second place is simply the consequence of missing several big chances, but there`s a real risk that such profligacy could be punished by Flamengo.
6. Inter (-1)
The competitive tension evident in the clash between Inter and River at the final whistle in Seattle highlighted a needle often missing at the Club World Cup. You can sense that this competition offers a chance for redemption for a club perhaps bruised by their near misses in Serie A and the Champions League. It`s possible that the demands of those high-stakes games could catch up with Cristian Chivu`s side as the tournament progresses, particularly given the difficulty they faced in finishing atop Group E.
7. Borussia Dortmund (–)
Borussia Dortmund has benefited from a favorable draw, earning a manageable tie against Monterrey as a reward for successfully navigating a very forgiving Group F. Is the ultimate outcome of this fortune the same as it was in the 2024 Champions League, where they were ultimately brushed aside by Real Madrid regardless of how well they played? Probably.
8. Benfica (+1)
Benfica is one of many teams in this competition that are difficult to fully assess based on just three games. At the time, having to fight back for a 2-2 draw with Boca Juniors seemed like an underwhelming result. Now that we know how tough South American opponents are (especially Brazilian ones, it must be noted), does that result look more impressive? Did Benfica simply ride their luck against Bayern Munich? Perhaps, but if they manage to get past Chelsea, their credentials might need to be taken more seriously.
9. Fluminense (+7)
In our pre-tournament power rankings, we suggested that Fluminense seemed to lack the attacking flair of the other Brazilian teams. What we underestimated was the strength of their defense; their 1.7 expected goals (xG) allowed is bettered only by Bayern Munich. It`s fair to say the draw has been kind to them and might be again, given they face a seemingly tired Inter side. Their tie could be another one primed for an upset.
10. Palmeiras (+1)
Considering we had such high expectations for Palmeiras entering this competition, it`s hard to shake the feeling that they are the Brazilian team that has impressed the least. Still, they remain undefeated and have likely just been somewhat unlucky in front of goal. If Willian Estevao and Vitor Roque find their rhythm, this might be the team capable of advancing through what we`re calling `Chelsea`s quadrant of favorability`.
11. Botafogo (+13)
Having delivered the result of the tournament with their win over PSG, Botafogo showed composure against Atletico Madrid. The task of keeping the margin of defeat below three goals is more complex than it might appear, and Fogo relied heavily on goalkeeper John Victor and their defense, all of whom have performed well in the competition. A robust defense is a strong foundation for tournament success, though averaging more than two xG against per game is not ideal. Then again, it might be some time before Botafogo faces another team as strong as the ones they encountered in the group stage (not counting the Seattle Sounders, of course).
12. Juventus (-2)
Talk about a crashing return to reality. Perhaps the severity of their 5-2 defeat to Manchester City, following impressive wins over Al-Ain and Wydad Casablanca, is mitigated by the six changes made by Igor Tudor, who was hesitant to be too critical of his players given they had already qualified. Nevertheless, their failure to secure a draw means they now face Real Madrid in the last 16. That likely marks the end of their tournament run.
13. Flamengo (–)
This ranking feels unfairly low. Flamengo might arguably have been the best of the Brazilian teams in this competition. Jorginho has been outstanding in midfield, and Gonzalo Plata was a thrilling breakout star in their win over Chelsea. The only issue is that this victory propelled them into the difficult side of the bracket, with a potential route to the final likely involving Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, and Real Madrid. Pulling off one more shock doesn`t seem beyond Filipe Luis`s side, but it`s hard to envision them overcoming three such formidable opponents.
14. Monterrey (+8)
Former Guardiola assistant Domenec Torrent has made an immediate impact in the Monterrey dugout, remaining unbeaten in three games where his team proved exceptionally resilient against more talented opponents like Inter and River Plate. From there, it was about getting the job done, and doing so convincingly against Urawa Red Diamonds with a 4-0 win, ensuring they didn`t need to worry about results in other matches.
15. Al-Hilal (–)
The Kobe Bryant speech Al-Hilal posted on social media after their 2-0 win reflects the mindset of the Saudi giants heading into the knockout stages: `Job`s not finished.` The signing of Theo Hernandez is another move to strengthen Simone Inzaghi`s squad with top talent, and the draw against Real Madrid offers some hope. However, their meeting with Manchester City, despite its geopolitical significance, is unlikely to go their way.
16. Inter Miami (+2)
Inter Miami may have the greatest player the game has ever seen on their side, but they are simply not expected to get past Paris Saint-Germain, probably not Bayern Munich, maybe not Real Madrid, and definitely not Manchester City. No siree.
