The regular season of the English Football League (EFL) concludes this Saturday, with significant outcomes yet to be decided across the second, third, and fourth divisions. The playoffs, featuring intense two-legged semifinals and a showpiece final at Wembley in May, offer another route to promotion for teams that didn`t secure an automatic spot over the 46-game campaign.
However, before the playoffs commence, numerous crucial matters are still on the line. Only one of the three leagues has its champion confirmed – League One`s formidable Birmingham City. Meanwhile, every division still has playoff positions up for grabs. Wrexham appear set for the Championship alongside Birmingham, but could troubled Reading also find a path? They must first secure a place in the top six.
Conversely, the threat of relegation looms large in the Championship, where five prominent clubs are desperately trying to avoid joining Cardiff City and, barring an improbable turn of events, Plymouth Argyle in League One. This group includes Luton Town, who were realistically in contention for Premier League survival just a year ago, along with historical top-flight teams like Stoke City and Derby County.
Let`s begin by looking at the top of the EFL pyramid:
1. Chasing the Century Mark
Achieving a points tally of 100 or more is a rare and significant accomplishment in English football. Before the current season, only 16 clubs had reached the 100-point milestone – 15 of these in the 42-game EFL format, and Manchester City in the 38-game Premier League season of 2017-18. Entering the final day, there remains a strong possibility of seeing three teams hit the century mark across the top four divisions in a single season for the first time ever.
One club has already achieved this feat. League One champions Birmingham City have not only reached 100 points but have surpassed the previous record for the highest points total in an English league season. Their record of 33 wins, nine draws, and three losses puts them two points ahead of Reading`s previous high of 106 points set during their 2005-06 Championship win. Should they defeat already-relegated Cambridge United on the final day, they will finish the season with 111 points.
Blues manager Chris Davies previously stated that the club`s record would `never be beaten` after they reached 105 points, yet triple-figure tallies have become more frequent in recent years, with seven recorded in the last 11 seasons. Nevertheless, a tally of 111 would undeniably stand as a remarkable and enduring record in the English professional game.
Neither Leeds United nor Burnley will reach Birmingham`s level, but both still have a chance to conclude the Championship season on 100 points. If either were to achieve this tally and not win the league, they would be the first 100-point team not to claim the title. This scenario is more likely for Burnley, as Leeds hold a significant 13-goal advantage in goal difference. This gap is unsurprising, given that Leeds have been statistically the best team in the Championship based on non-penalty expected goal difference.
While both teams have secured their place in the Premier League, winning the league title remains important, as Leeds right-back Jayden Bogle emphasized last month. “Our objective from the start of the season was silverware. We aren`t going to stop now. While securing promotion early is great, we still have a goal in mind and we are determined to achieve it.”
For Leeds, achieving this means beating Plymouth, a team virtually relegated due to their significantly worse goal difference compared to teams three points ahead. It will be a much tougher task for Burnley, who face Millwall, one of the Championship`s most in-form teams. And Millwall has everything to play for…
2. The Championship Playoff Scramble
It wouldn`t be the final day of the Championship without multiple teams vying intensely for the remaining promotion playoff spots. Sheffield United and Sunderland have long secured third and fourth place. Below them, it`s a race of five teams competing for two spots, with one outcome almost certainly decided at the CBS Arena.
Playoff Picture
| Team | W | D | L | For | Against | GD | Pts. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sheffield United | 28 | 7 | 10 | 62 | 35 | 27 | 89 |
| 4 | Sunderland | 21 | 13 | 11 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 76 |
| 5 | Bristol City | 17 | 16 | 12 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 67 |
| 6 | Coventry City | 19 | 9 | 17 | 62 | 58 | 4 | 66 |
| 7 | Millwall | 18 | 12 | 15 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 66 |
| 8 | Blackburn Rovers | 19 | 8 | 18 | 52 | 47 | 5 | 65 |
| 9 | Middlesbrough | 18 | 10 | 17 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 64 |
Remaining Fixtures
- Bristol City vs. Preston North End
- Burnley vs. Millwall
- Coventry City vs. Middlesbrough
- Sheffield United vs. Blackburn Rovers
Bristol City and Coventry City currently hold fifth and sixth position, meaning their fate is in their own hands. However, Bristol faces a challenging final match at home against a Preston side that must win to ensure their decade-long stay in the Championship doesn`t end. If that promises drama, it pales in comparison to the situation in the Midlands, where Michael Carrick`s Middlesbrough needs a win to have any hope. The stakes are almost as high for Frank Lampard`s Coventry, who must assume they will be overtaken by at least one of Millwall and Blackburn if they only manage a draw.
Blackburn may be hoping their final match serves as an early test for a potential playoff clash against Sheffield United. Millwall, despite being level on points with Coventry, face a much tougher path to the top six. Earning a point at Burnley would be difficult enough, but even then they would depend on Middlesbrough defeating Coventry, Blackburn losing at Bramall Lane, and Bristol City losing by a five-goal margin against Preston. As Alex Neil`s side knows, they simply must win.
“I believe scoring the first goal in this game will be very important for both teams,” said Neil. “We need to ensure that during the match, we create the opportunity to win it. Our approach hasn`t changed for the last ten games. So our mindset will be exactly the same.”
3. Five Teams Fighting to Avoid 22nd Place
While not described with the same catastrophic language as a Premier League club`s relegation, dropping from the Championship to League One can be a significant financial blow for many clubs. Five teams head into the final day fearing the worst, with Hull City currently occupying the dreaded relegation spot. They at least have the advantage of knowing that at least one of the teams within reach will drop points, as Derby County host Stoke City.
Relegation Picture
| Team | W | D | L | For | Against | GD | Pts. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Oxford United | 13 | 13 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 52 |
| 18 | Stoke City | 12 | 14 | 19 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 50 |
| 19 | Derby County | 13 | 10 | 22 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 49 |
| 20 | Preston North End | 10 | 19 | 16 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 49 |
| 21 | Luton Town | 13 | 10 | 22 | 42 | 63 | -22 | 49 |
| 22 | Hull City | 12 | 12 | 21 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 48 |
| 23 | Plymouth Argyle | 11 | 13 | 21 | 50 | 86 | -36 | 46 |
| 24 | Cardiff City | 9 | 17 | 19 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 44 |
Remaining Fixtures
- Bristol City vs. Preston North End
- Derby County vs. Stoke City
- Portsmouth vs. Hull City
- West Bromwich Albion vs. Luton Town
A draw at Fratton Park could offer hope for Hull, thanks to their superior goal difference, but regardless of their result, their survival is not guaranteed. This is because Luton Town have experienced a remarkable turnaround in their last three matches, winning all of them. This means they can travel to face a managerless West Brom side believing a dramatic escape is possible.
Could relegation be sealed at Pride Park? Stoke would secure safety with a point, which would also provide a useful buffer for Derby. Derby could then only be relegated if Luton, Preston, and Hull all win their respective games. Then again, on the final day of the Championship season, teams fighting for their lives often deliver truly exceptional performances.
4. Crisis-Stricken Reading Needs On-Field Success
Very little remains to be decided in League One. Wrexham and Birmingham City are already promoted, the four relegated teams are confirmed, and only minor positioning remains to be settled among teams placed third to fifth. However, the identity of the team securing the final playoff spot could add a layer of drama, potentially decided both on and off the pitch.
Leyton Orient currently holds sixth place and would likely maintain it with a victory at Huddersfield. However, failure to win would open the door for Reading, who are currently on an eight-game winning streak and playing at home against Barnsley. Noel Clarke`s side has performed brilliantly on the field, but discussions about the Berkshire club in recent years have predominantly focused on their ownership crisis. Chinese businessman Dai Yongge purchased the club in 2017 when they were pushing for a return to the Premier League. Since then, his management has brought relentless hardship upon Royals fans, with a series of points deductions leading to their relegation to League One in 2023.
Following a court ruling in China, Yongge was disqualified from owning the club in March under the EFL`s Owners` and Directors` Test and was instructed to sell by April 4. This deadline passed, but Reading was granted an extension, with the constant threat of expulsion from the EFL looming. Rob Couhig is considered the likely buyer, but his negotiations with Yongge have been volatile, with the two parties facing each other in London`s Commercial Court last month over the sale. An alternative buyer could be Robert Platek, but his firm, BDT & MSD Partners, has lent money to several EFL clubs, potentially creating a conflict of interest.
The latest deadline for Yongge to divest himself of the club is May 5. Two days later, the team finishing sixth in League One is scheduled to play the first leg of their playoff semifinal. These next few days could dramatically alter Reading`s trajectory – or see them sink further into turmoil.
5. Can Walsall Halt Their Downward Spiral?
Plenty is still at stake in League Two. The title is yet to be decided, and the final two playoff spots are still available. Most notably, however, this is the last chance for Walsall to salvage a season that looked incredibly promising for a significant period. When Mat Sadler`s side defeated MK Dons 4-2 on January 18, marking their ninth consecutive win, they had established a 15-point lead at the top of the table. Across England`s top four divisions, no other team had earned more points or scored more goals, and only Leeds and Liverpool boasted a better expected goal difference (xGD). Surely, they were destined for League One?
However, top scorer Nathan Lowe departed. Their tendency to concede possession has been exploited. Arsene Wenger`s famous remark about confidence rising slowly and falling quickly seems particularly apt at Bescott. They have only managed two wins from their last 20 games, yielding a points-per-game tally that ranks them 84th among England`s 92 top-four league teams. The 16 points they have accumulated in this period is the joint-worst record in League Two. Luck has seemingly abandoned Walsall, who don`t appear to have simply become a dreadful side overnight. When ranking the top four leagues by xGD since January 19, they sit 21st, slightly ahead of Newcastle United.
The significant lead they built has evaporated. With one game remaining, they are just one point behind Bradford for the third and final promotion spot. Walsall will require a favourable result from Fleetwood Town before they can even focus on their own match. On a positive note, they are facing another team that has seen its standing collapse in 2025. After Walsall`s win against MK Dons, their nearest rivals were Crewe Alexandra. Crewe now sits 12th in the table following a similarly drastic decline. Perhaps this final day is when luck will finally favour Walsall again.
