The Easter weekend marks a crucial point in the English Football League Championship season. With only four games remaining, much is still to be decided. Promotion spots are still open, playoff positions are not yet finalized, and many teams are fighting to avoid relegation to League One. In fact, about 17 of the 24 teams in the league are still involved in these key battles.
The upcoming games, starting Friday, April 18th, include important matches like Coventry City versus West Bromwich Albion, which is significant for playoff hopes. Luton Town is also struggling against relegation and will play Derby County away before hosting Bristol City, another team aiming for the top six, on Monday. Millwall`s playoff chances and Plymouth Argyle`s fight for survival are also key storylines to watch this weekend.
1. Automatic Promotion Still Up For Grabs?
Leeds United seems to be in a strong position for automatic promotion. Throughout the season, they have been the strongest team in the league, scoring significantly more goals than any other team. Their defense is also top-tier, although Burnley`s and James Trafford`s performances are also notable. In a league known for its competitiveness, Leeds` dominance is highlighted by their non-penalty expected goal difference (npxGD) per game of 1.2, which is comparable to Barcelona`s dominance in La Liga. Coventry City is the next best in this metric at 0.39.
Leeds appears ready for the Premier League, but past seasons have shown that leads can be lost. Despite being five points ahead with four games left, history reminds us of previous collapses. Manager Daniel Farke is focused on keeping the team grounded. He emphasizes the importance of emotional balance for success in this league, avoiding both overconfidence and negativity to maintain energy when it matters most. This approach is crucial as they face Oxford on Friday night.
Leeds will be watching Burnley`s results closely to see if they have overtaken them and also Sheffield United`s progress in closing the points gap. Sheffield United, after losing their last three games, are five points behind the top two, effectively six due to a significant goal difference. They must win against Cardiff on Friday and their remaining matches.
Sheffield United`s manager, Wilder, dismisses pressure as an excuse and urges his team to embrace it. However, even winning all remaining games might not be enough. Leeds has managed to win their recent games, and Burnley remains unbeaten in the league since early November. These top teams seem unlikely to falter. However, Sheffield United has a crucial opportunity when they play Burnley at Turf Moor on Easter Monday. A win there would put them firmly back in contention.
The Race for Promotion
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leeds United | 42 | 53 | 88 |
| 2 | Burnley | 42 | 44 | 88 |
| 3 | Sheffield United | 42 | 24 | 83 |
| 4 | Sunderland | 42 | 19 | 76 |
| 5 | Bristol City | 42 | 9 | 64 |
| 6 | Coventry City | 42 | 5 | 63 |
| 7 | West Bromwich Albion | 42 | 12 | 60 |
| 8 | Middlesbrough | 42 | 10 | 60 |
| 9 | Millwall | 42 | 0 | 60 |
| 10 | Blackburn Rovers | 42 | 0 | 56 |
2. Playoff Form in Focus
Sheffield United`s current form is a concern for their playoff prospects. Momentum is key at this stage of the season, and they seem to be lacking it. Sunderland, while not as strong as earlier in the season, are comfortably in fourth place. Below them, the competition for the remaining two playoff spots is tight among five teams.
Bristol City currently holds a playoff spot but faces a challenging game against Luton Town, who are fighting to stay in the Championship, on Monday. Bristol City also has upcoming games against Leeds and Preston. Liam Manning`s Preston team has been in excellent form since the start of the year and has performed well against teams they are likely to face in the playoffs. Their game against Sunderland on Friday could be a significant statement.
Coventry City showed strong form after the international break and their strong npxGD suggests they should be taken seriously if they reach the playoffs. However, Frank Lampard`s team has only gained four points in their last four games and needs to win against West Brom to stay ahead of the chasing teams.
Middlesbrough`s form is inconsistent. A win at Blackburn was followed by losses to Leeds and Millwall, dropping them to eighth. Millwall`s victory puts them firmly in the playoff mix. Their upcoming game against Blackburn is crucial for both teams` playoff ambitions. Millwall`s subsequent home games against Norwich and Swansea, who have little to play for, present a potential path to the top six for them.
3. Intense Relegation Battle
With only four games left, the bottom of the Championship table is incredibly tight. Three teams will be relegated, and Preston North End and Queens Park Rangers are only slightly above the danger zone, mainly due to goal difference. The loser of the game between Preston and QPR on Friday will be anxiously watching other results.
QPR`s manager, Marti Cifuentes, points out that while 50 points is usually enough for safety, it`s not mathematically certain yet, emphasizing the need to keep winning.
The Foot of the Championship
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Queens Park Rangers | 42 | -6 | 50 |
| 16 | Preston North End | 42 | -8 | 49 |
| 17 | Oxford United | 42 | -17 | 48 |
| 18 | Stoke City | 42 | -11 | 47 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 42 | -16 | 46 |
| 20 | Hull City | 42 | -9 | 45 |
| 21 | Derby County | 42 | -10 | 43 |
| 22 | Cardiff City | 42 | -21 | 42 |
| 23 | Luton Town | 42 | -26 | 40 |
| 24 | Plymouth Argyle | 42 | -38 | 40 |
The relegation battle is very unpredictable. Portsmouth`s recent game against Derby illustrates this point. Trailing 2-1 at home in the 90th minute, Portsmouth scored in the 91st minute to draw, gaining a crucial point and reducing Derby`s points. This point could be vital as none of the bottom three teams seem completely out of the fight yet.
Luton Town has shown improved form recently, winning three, drawing three, and losing only two of their last eight games. Their match against Derby is critical as they try to avoid back-to-back relegations. Cardiff City hopes for Sheffield United`s struggles to continue and aims to put pressure on Oxford United. Oxford, in their first Championship season, initially performed strongly under Gary Rowett but then struggled before recent wins have improved their position. Stoke City is also gaining points, and Hull City has only lost twice since March. Hull`s fixture list, including games against Derby and Portsmouth, could be decisive in their survival.
Plymouth Argyle`s situation is also critical. After sacking Wayne Rooney, their performances suggested they were likely to be relegated. Their underlying stats still indicate they are the weakest team in the league. Easter games against playoff contenders Middlesbrough and Coventry could highlight their weaknesses. However, this stage of the season is often known for unexpected outcomes.
Predictions
Top two: Leeds and Burnley
Play offs: Sheffield United, Sunderland, Coventry City, Middlesbrough
Promoted: Coventry City
Relegation: Cardiff City, Luton Town, Plymouth Argyle
