The Washington Capitals are looking to wrap up their first-round series against the Montreal Canadiens as the teams meet for Game 5 on Wednesday. Washington secured wins in the initial two games at home before splitting the next two in Montreal, highlighted by a 5-2 victory in Game 4 on Sunday, giving the Capitals a commanding 3-1 series lead. While the last three contests have been decided by multiple goals, Game 1 saw Washington needing overtime to clinch the win. Wednesday`s crucial game is scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.
According to the latest betting lines from Caesars Sportsbook, Washington enters Game 5 as the favorite with a money line of -179 (meaning you risk $179 to win $100). Montreal is listed as the underdog at +152 (risk $100 to win $152). The over/under for total goals is set at 6.0, and the Capitals have a puck line of -1.5 with odds of +135. Before placing any wagers on the Canadiens vs. Capitals matchup, it`s recommended to consult the NHL predictions generated by SportsLine`s proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times. The model has shown strong performance early in the 2025 NHL playoffs, holding a combined record of 78-55 on its top-rated puck line and over/under betting selections, which translates to over $1,500 in profit for bettors wagering $100 per pick. Those who have followed the model`s advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps have seen positive returns. Here are its three top picks for the Capitals vs. Canadiens Game 5 on Wednesday:
Capitals Money Line (-179)
Washington successfully defended its home ice in the first two games of the series and is now firmly in control following their decisive 5-2 win on the road Sunday. In Game 4, they exploded for four goals in the third period, including two scored by Brandon Duhaime. Dylan Strome also had a strong performance with a goal and an assist, bringing his series point total to seven. The SportsLine projection model forecasts a Washington win in Game 5 in nearly 70% of its simulations, exceeding the implied probability of 64% based on the Caesars odds.
Nick Suzuki Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-188)
Suzuki played a significant role in the series opener, scoring a goal and recording seven shots on net. However, his shot volume has decreased significantly since then, with only four combined shots in the subsequent three games and just one in Game 4 on Sunday. The 25-year-old forward averaged 2.1 shots on goal during the regular season. The model projects him to finish with 1.58 shots in Wednesday`s game, indicating value on the Under 2.5 line, best found at -188 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Alex Ovechkin Under 3.5 Shots on Goal (+100)
Ovechkin has been a focal point during his historic season and currently leads the Capitals in the playoffs with 13 shots on goal. However, Washington`s offensive attack has been relatively spread out, with six other teammates having recorded at least eight shots in the series. The veteran forward has registered fewer than 3.5 shots in four of his last five home games. The model projects him for 3.3 shots in this upcoming game, suggesting the Under 3.5 at +100 odds at DraftKings offers good value.
