With the European club football season now complete, players have done all they can on the pitch to stake their claim for the prestigious Ballon d`Or. The winner will be revealed on September 22, leaving ample time until then for passionate debate.
Discussing who the best player on the planet has been over a season is always enjoyable and worthwhile. This year`s race is particularly compelling because, unlike many years dominated by Lionel Messi, there is no single obvious candidate.
Early in 2025, Mohamed Salah appeared to be the clear frontrunner due to his incredible form. However, the unexpected and rapid ascent of Paris Saint-Germain to become Europe`s premier team has significantly altered the landscape, making their star forward, Ousmane Dembele, the current favorite according to many.
This analysis focuses not on predicting who will win, but who *should* win based on performance. The most critical factor is output, especially contributions to scoring goals, which is arguably the most valuable action in football. However, preventing the opposition from scoring is also highly important, though this season`s attacking numbers suggest a defender winning, as Fabio Cannavaro once did, is less likely.
Achieving success in major competitions through goals, assists, and clean sheets is undeniably important, aligning with the Ballon d`Or`s criteria of `team performances and achievements`. The final decision involves balancing team accomplishments, individual brilliance, and `class and fair play`—a process that blends objective analysis with subjective judgment.
At this stage of the season, raw statistics heavily influence the assessment. While metrics like expected goals (xG) and per 90 stats are useful for forecasting potential earlier in the season, for the 2025 award, we have nearly all the data needed. Here`s a look at the leading contenders.
1. Mohamed Salah
Before this season, only two Premier League players had managed 47 goal contributions in a single campaign, both requiring 42 games. Salah matched this record with games to spare, finishing his season with an astounding 34 goals and 23 assists. His achievements with Liverpool, including powering them to comfortably win Europe`s most competitive domestic league, should outweigh their early Champions League exit.
2. Raphinha
What a remarkable turnaround. At the season`s start, Barcelona reportedly sought to offload Raphinha. Nine months later, he was a pivotal figure in their title-winning side. He was even better in the Champions League, equaling Cristiano Ronaldo`s record of 21 goal contributions in the competition. A Champions League victory might well have propelled him to the top spot.
3. Ousmane Dembele
Dembele`s case is straightforward: his development into a world-class center forward was a primary reason PSG became capable of winning the Champions League. He led the line brilliantly, delivering standout performances in the season`s biggest matches. His ranking below the top two reflects the fact that Salah and Raphinha maintained their exceptional output over the full year in domestic leagues considered more competitive.
4. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
The top three likely form their own tier. From here, we rank players who were brilliant but perhaps not quite at the level needed to win the Ballon d`Or this year. Kvaratskhelia is certainly among these, another crucial addition for PSG midway through the season that helped transform them into a superteam. His raw output isn`t as high as others on this list, but his skill in creating scoring opportunities and delivering with flair is undeniable.
5. Pedri
Widely considered the season`s best midfielder, a sentiment echoed by figures like Toni Kroos, who called him “the best in the world in his position.” While his ball progression stats were excellent as expected, his surprising and strong commitment to tackling and interceptions marked a new high point for the 22-year-old.
6. Lamine Yamal
Pure output-wise, Yamal is close to the top three with 39 goal contributions, which is incredible for any player, let alone a 17-year-old. His inclusion among the favorites is also driven by the powerful narrative of performing so effectively in major games like the Champions League semifinals. Based on his current trajectory, it seems a matter of when, not if, he joins the elite winners.
7. Achraf Hakimi
Several PSG players merit inclusion in the top 10, but Hakimi stands out for two reasons. First, his dynamic play both offensively and defensively perfectly embodies the style of Luis Enrique`s team. Second, his crucial goals in the Champions League quarter-finals, semi-finals, and final add significant weight to his case.
8. Kylian Mbappe
One could argue Mbappe`s situation at Real Madrid might have destabilized the team enough to hurt his Ballon d`Or chances. Conversely, the team`s struggles were also due to defensive injuries, and they might have been worse off without Mbappe`s 42 goals across the season.
9. Virgil van Dijk
Van Dijk was outstanding this season. Any slight loss in pace appears to have been more than compensated for by the significant improvements he has made to his ability on the ball in recent years, solidifying his defensive dominance.
10. Harry Kane
Kane`s inclusion is straightforward. He ranks second across Europe`s top five leagues for goal contributions despite playing nearly 1,000 fewer minutes than Salah. Even at 31, he combines league-leading scoring with top 10 assists, and now has major trophies to complement his incredible individual stats.
