Aljamain Sterling has expressed respect for Ilia Topuria`s striking power and believes Charles Oliveira should approach it with caution.
While initially facing criticism regarding his performance under pressure, Oliveira has since transformed into a formidable world champion known for his ability to absorb significant damage and respond with overwhelming offense, frequently leading to spectacular finishes and fight night bonuses.
Oliveira is set to compete for the vacant lightweight title against Ilia Topuria on June 28 at UFC 317. Sterling questions whether Oliveira should rely on his typical aggressive, high-risk style when facing Topuria.
“This is interesting because Oliveira gets dropped nearly every fight,” Sterling commented on The Weekly Scraps podcast. “Almost every single one of his last eight fights, I`d say. Given that, we know Ilia Topuria hits incredibly hard. We saw Topuria dropped by Jai Herbert, but he recovered. That was his first fight at 155 pounds. He claims he feels stronger at lightweight, with significantly different power. We already knew he hit hard at 145 pounds. How will that power translate at 155, and if he can connect with Charles the way he does with others, I think it`s a very difficult night for Charles, and Ilia becomes a two-division champion.”
Sterling then considered the grappling dimension. “However, there`s the grappling department. We haven`t seen anyone truly force the grappling issue against Ilia. I wonder if `do Bronx` will attempt that strategy to see if he can exhaust him and reduce the impact of his punches. That`s the crucial question mark.”
Oliveira is widely regarded as one of the most dangerous grapplers in MMA history. The 35-year-old holds the UFC record with 16 submission victories. He is also expected to have a size advantage over Topuria, adding an intriguing element to any clinch or ground exchanges.
Topuria has demonstrated flashes of offensive and defensive wrestling but primarily relies on his striking to secure wins. He knocked out Alexander Volkanovski to claim the featherweight title, becoming the first fighter to defeat Volkanovski at 145 pounds, and also holds a knockout win over Max Holloway.
Given Topuria`s track record of defeating high-caliber opponents, Sterling ponders how much further his climb up the historical ranks can continue.
“It`s tough to count out `do Bronx`,” Sterling stated. “I still believe he is who he is. But then I thought that about Max, I thought that about Volk – and I`m not suggesting those guys were guaranteed to beat Ilia – but you feel those guys are still at their peak, and then Ilia goes and performs like that against them, and you think, `Wow… who is actually going to stop this guy?`”
Oliveira holds a 2-2 record in his last four bouts, but prior to this, he achieved an impressive streak of 11 consecutive victories in arguably the most competitive division in MMA. Conversely, Topuria remains undefeated across all 16 of his professional fights.
The outcome of their highly anticipated matchup could depend on which fighter successfully imposes their dominant skill set. Sterling anticipates this strategic battle will be a key question throughout the potentially full five rounds.
“I`m leaning towards Ilia,” Sterling admitted. “I think that`s the smart bet. Of course, Oliveira can win, especially if he can implement his grappling early. Perhaps he surprises us and shows that Ilia can be tired out, taking away some of the power from his strikes. But then, what does that mean for Oliveira in the later rounds?”
“Can he maintain his defense effectively, particularly if he doesn`t secure an early finish? And how does he even get the takedown? He needs to close the distance to shoot for a takedown against a shorter opponent. How do you accomplish that? You have to get underneath their base. It`s a difficult task.”
