The third major golf championship of 2025, the U.S. Open, is set to take place at Oakmont from Thursday to Sunday. Our golf experts share their predictions for potential winners, while our betting analysts provide insights on where to find value. Here`s a comprehensive look at the top contenders and more ahead of the tournament.
Expert Predictions
Matt Barrie: Picks Jon Rahm. Justification: Choosing Scheffler is too obvious. Rahm is regaining his peak form for majors, with recent strong finishes (T14 at the Masters, 8th at the PGA Championship), reminding us of his world-beating play before joining LIV.
Tory Barron: Picks Scottie Scheffler. Justification: Oakmont is known for being extremely challenging. The champion will need to be formidable. I`m backing the player who won three of his last four starts by a combined 17 strokes – nobody is more intimidating than Scheffler when he`s playing at his best.
Michael Collins: Picks Scottie Scheffler. Justification: In simpler terms, Scheffler seems unstoppable. Scottie is inevitable. On a tough course like Oakmont, especially when set up by the USGA, only about eight players have a realistic chance to win. Scottie is inevitable.
Jeff Darlington: Picks Scottie Scheffler. Justification: We`ve reached a point with Scheffler similar to the Tiger Woods era – the cliché of picking him to win outweighs the desire for an outside-the-box choice. Although Bryson DeChambeau matches up well with Oakmont, Scheffler is simply too dominant and consistent right now.
Michael Eaves: Picks Sepp Straka. Justification: The current Oakmont setup appears to favor precise play, emphasizing hitting fairways and greens. Straka has excelled in these areas this season, demonstrating accuracy and confidence with two wins already this year. Additionally, five of the last six U.S. Open champions were first-time major winners, a trend Straka could continue.
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Picks Scottie Scheffler. Justification: If it were Scheffler versus the rest of the field, I`d choose the field. But that`s not the question. One part of me, thinking nothing this obvious ever happens, wants to pick someone else. The part of me that actually watches golf is picking Scottie.
Andy North: Picks Scottie Scheffler. Justification: He`s won three of his last four events. At Oakmont, excellent iron play is crucial, and nobody is better at that than Scottie.
Mark Schlabach: Picks Scottie Scheffler. Justification: Yes, it`s not a bold choice, but if the goal is to pick the player most likely to lift the trophy on Sunday, who else could it be? I chose Rory McIlroy for the PGA Championship based on his past success, but Scheffler proved again he`s the man to beat. The world No. 1 is playing incredibly well, leading the tour in nearly every strokes-gained category from tee to green. He`s also 25th in strokes gained: putting, which was previously considered a weakness. If he`s near the top on Sunday, nobody steps on the gas like Scottie.
Marty Smith: Picks Scottie Scheffler. Justification: Oakmont is arguably the toughest course globally. It demands incredible precision and accuracy. Scottie is playing with such freedom and precision that I believe he will continue this at Oakmont.
Curtis Strange: Picks Scottie Scheffler. Justification: He`s the world No. 1, winner of three of his last four events, competing on one of the strategically toughest courses in the world – Oakmont!
Paolo Uggetti: Picks Jon Rahm. Justification: I was impressed by Rahm`s performance at the PGA Championship. Not only did he place himself back in major contention for the first time since the 2023 Masters, but his game and competitive drive seemed perfectly aligned, producing compelling golf. His style should suit Oakmont well, and I think he`s one of the few players capable of challenging Scheffler this week.
Scott Van Pelt: Picks Jon Rahm. Justification: Because someone has to pick a different player than Scottie.
Betting Insights
Odds provided by ESPN BET
Who is your pick to win?
David Gordon, ESPN Research: Picks Rory McIlroy (+1200). Justification: McIlroy was a co-favorite at +450 at the recent PGA Championship. Now his odds are nearly triple, partly due to equipment issues. I trust Rory to resolve these and return to form at a tournament where he finished runner-up in the last two years.
Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst: Picks Collin Morikawa (+2200). Justification: Morikawa possesses the emotional composure and analytical approach well-suited for Oakmont. He started the year strongly with two runner-up finishes, but has since cooled down, with only one Top-10 since March. His game structure fits this course: fourth in accuracy and fifth in approach. If he remains calm and executes his game plan, Morikawa could quietly contend on Sunday, and it wouldn`t be surprising.
Anita Marks, betting analyst: Picks Jon Rahm (+1200). Justification: Rahm`s long game is ideal for Oakmont. He enters the week in great form, and his competitive fire seems rekindled! His T-14th at the Masters and T-8th at the PGA Championship indicate he`s capable. Rahm leads LIV in greens in regulation percentage, a crucial statistic for this layout.
Who is your favorite bet to make the top 10?
David Gordon: Picks Xander Schauffele (+210). Justification: I`m prioritizing spectacular tournament history over recent mediocre form with Schauffele, especially at this price which might not be available often in the future. He boasts seven Top-10 finishes in eight U.S. Open appearances; his worst finish is T-14th (2022).
Pamela Maldonado: Picks Keegan Bradley (+475). Justification: Golf success hinges on trusting your swing. With consecutive Top-10 finishes and positive putting performance, Bradley has that trust. He`s a high-quality ball striker across the board and surprisingly good around the greens. While putting can be volatile, Bradley`s ballstriking potential is certainly high enough to win.
What is your favorite Scottie Scheffler bet?
David Gordon: Bet: To finish Round 1 in Top 10 (+150). Justification: Scheffler has been in the Top 10 after 10 of his last 11 major rounds (91%) dating back to last year. Nine of the past 11 U.S. Open winners were inside the Top 10 after the first 18 holes.
Pamela Maldonado: Bet: To finish Round 1 in the Top 10 (+150). Justification: Ranking third on tour in Round 1 scoring average, Scheffler is elite from the start. Analyzing his strokes gained numbers by round, Scottie`s best performance off the tee, with irons, and from tee-to-green occurs in the opening round, gaining an average of 3.98 total strokes – at least 1.5 strokes better than any other round. He starts strong and maintains solid play thereafter.
Who are your favorite long shots/value bets?
David Gordon: Bet: Cameron Young (+10000). Justification: After a tough start to the season with four missed cuts, Young recently finished T-4th at the RBC Canadian Open and T-7th at the Truist Championship three starts prior. He has significant major championship experience and success, including five Top 10s between the 2022 PGA and 2024 Masters.
Pamela Maldonado: Bet: Keegan Bradley to win (+7500). Justification: While putting and scrambling are potential concerns, his approach and ballstriking floor are extremely high. With two Top 10s in his last two starts, his form is peaking. He`s performing like a tee-to-green powerhouse right now, ranking second in the field over the last 32 rounds. If you`re looking for a player with winning-level ballstriking at longer odds, he`s worth considering.
Any other bets stand out to you?
David Gordon: Bet: Make the cut parlay: Tommy Fleetwood and Harris English (-104). Justification: English is having a career year and has never missed the cut in nine U.S. Open appearances. Fleetwood hasn`t missed a cut this season and has consistently been inside the Top 40 after 36 holes in his last 11 starts. Combining these two feels like a safe bet.
Pamela Maldonado: Bet: Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (-140). Justification: The odds are low, but this might still be undervalued. In 31 starts since January 2024, Scheffler has finished in the top five 19 times, including 10 wins. Unlike many low-odds markets, this one is strongly supported by data. Scheffler is consistent, rarely posts a poor round, and even with a cold putter, his ballstriking alone can keep him near the top.
Tyler Fulghum: Bet: Dustin Johnson to miss the cut (-120). Justification: DJ won the U.S. Open at Oakmont in 2016, which feels like a long time ago. Since joining LIV in 2022, Johnson hasn`t come close to contending in majors. His best finish in 10 major starts since 2023 is T-31st. He has missed the cut five times, including both the Masters and the PGA Championship this year.
Anita Marks: Bet: Rory McIlroy to miss the cut (+290). Justification: McIlroy hasn`t seemed like the same player since winning the Masters. He shot a 78 in the second round of the Canadian Open and didn`t play well at Quail Hollow. His driver issues are real, and his iron play hasn`t been stellar. Perhaps he lost some hunger after achieving the career Grand Slam.
Anita Marks: Bets: Ludvig Aberg top 20 (+155) and top Nordic golfer (+190). Justification: Aberg came close to winning the Canadian Open, and I see good value for him to finish in the Top 20 at positive odds. He drives the ball as well as anyone on tour, and his last five rounds have been in the 60s.
Anita Marks: Bet: Sepp Straka top 20 (+170). Justification: Straka is having a standout year – he finished third at the Memorial Tournament and has secured two wins this season. His ballstriking strengths could allow him to dominate this course. Straka ranks first in greens in regulation, fourth in tee-to-green, second in strokes gained: approach, and top 10 in driving accuracy.
